During the second week of May, Brent crude oil futures (Front Month, ICE) recorded their weekly minimum settlement price of $104.21/bbl on Monday, May 11. In the following sessions, prices remained consistently above $105/bbl, reflecting a stable upward pressure in the oil market. By Friday, May 15, Brent futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of $109.26/bbl, which represented an increase of 7.9% compared to the previous Friday, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
The upward movement in oil prices was driven by a combination of geopolitical and supply-side risk factors. The United States’ rejection of Iran’s response to its peace proposal, combined with ongoing tensions affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, increased concerns about potential supply disruptions. At the same time, the risk of a breakdown in ceasefire expectations further supported bullish sentiment in crude oil markets.
In the European gas market, TTF natural gas futures (ICE, Front Month) registered their weekly minimum settlement price of €46.23/MWh on Monday, May 11. Prices then followed a steady upward trend throughout the week, reaching a weekly maximum of €50.17/MWh on Friday, May 15. This level was 14% higher than the previous Friday’s close and marked the highest price since April 8, based on AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data.
The increase in gas futures prices was mainly driven by the lack of progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, alongside persistent concerns about potential disruptions in supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Additional upward pressure came from fundamentally tight European gas storage conditions, with average storage levels remaining below 40%, and several countries still under 25% capacity, reinforcing market sensitivity to supply risk.
Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures (EEX, December 2026 contract), the market reached its weekly maximum settlement price of €77.17/t on Monday, May 11, the highest level since April 18. Throughout the rest of the week, prices mostly stayed above €75/t, although below the early-week peak. The weekly minimum was recorded on May 13 at €75.07/t, before prices recovered slightly toward the end of the week.
By Friday, May 15, CO₂ futures settled at €75.62/t, representing a modest increase of 0.6% compared to the previous week’s final session. Overall, the market showed a relatively stable but firm trend, with intermittent fluctuations driven by broader energy market sentiment and expectations around industrial demand and fuel switching dynamics, AleaSoft reports.