During the first week of May, Brent crude oil futures for the ICE Front Month contract reached their weekly peak settlement price of $114.44/bbl on Monday, May 4, before entering a downward correction throughout the rest of the week. Prices declined steadily, reaching a weekly low of $100.06/bbl on Thursday, May 7, before closing the week slightly higher at $101.29/bbl on Friday, May 8. Despite the late rebound, this level was still 6.4% lower than the previous Friday, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data.
Price movements during the week reflected a mix of geopolitical and supply expectations. While escalating geopolitical tensions provided intermittent upward pressure, the market was largely dominated by expectations of a potential United States–Iran agreement, which contributed to a broader bearish sentiment and pushed prices downward.
In the European gas market, TTF gas futures for the ICE Front Month contract followed a similar trajectory. Prices peaked at €48.14/MWh on Monday, May 4, before declining to a weekly minimum of €43.56/MWh on Thursday, May 7. A slight recovery followed, with prices reaching €44.14/MWh on Friday, May 8, although this still represented a 3.5% decline compared to the previous week’s close.
The downward pressure on gas prices was also supported by expectations of a possible US–Iran agreement, which could ease global supply concerns and potentially reopen key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, improving market sentiment around future LNG flows.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market (December 2026 contract) showed a different pattern. Prices started the week at their minimum level of €73.06/t on May 4, before moving upward during the following sessions. The weekly peak was recorded on May 6 at €76.07/t, with prices remaining above €75/t for most of the week. By Friday, May 8, the settlement price stood at €75.20/t, which was still 1.9% higher than the previous week’s closing level.
Overall, energy commodity markets during the first week of May reflected a mixed macro environment, where expectations of geopolitical de-escalation weighed on oil and gas prices, while carbon markets remained relatively firm due to continued structural pressure from EU emissions policy, AleaSoft reports.