Day-ahead electricity prices fell across most Southeast European markets for Friday delivery, led by Serbia and Greece, as stronger solar and wind forecasts outweighed lower regional imports and largely stable consumption. At the same time, the widening gap between Central and Western European power prices highlighted persistent cross-border constraints and evening supply risks.
Hungary’s HUPX base price declined by €16.8/MWh to €179.78/MWh, while Romania fell €20.9 to €175.92/MWh. Bulgaria dropped €23.9 to €169.02/MWh, and Greece recorded a sharper decline of €33.3 to €159.57/MWh.
Serbia posted the lowest price among the main SEE markets at €149.76/MWh, down €35.2/MWh from the previous session. This left SEEPEX at a €30.02/MWh discount to HUPX.
Slovenia and Croatia converged at around €169/MWh, while Montenegro settled at €176.41/MWh and North Macedonia at €156.42/MWh. Albania moved against the regional trend, rising €7.9/MWh to €181.57/MWh, slightly above Hungary.
Italy remained the most expensive adjacent market at €211.17/MWh, while Germany recorded a substantially lower price of €88.95/MWh.
The contrasting movements widened the HUPX-Germany day-ahead spread to €90.82/MWh, nearly €28/MWh more than in the previous session. Hungary also maintained a €20.21/MWh premium over Greece, underscoring the continued divergence between Western European and SEE power markets despite the broader regional decline.
Renewables drive regional price relief
The main bearish influence on Friday’s SEE power markets was the expected increase in renewable generation.
Forecast solar output across the monitored region rose by approximately 1,154 MW day on day to 7,122 MW, while wind generation increased by 318 MW to 2,375 MW. Meanwhile, forecast electricity consumption remained virtually unchanged at 32,689 MW, just 29 MW above the previous day.
The price decline was particularly significant given that the region was also expected to rely less on imports. Net HU+SEE imports fell to 1,954 MW, from 2,637 MW, while inflows from the Austrian and Slovak direction dropped by 861 MW to 2,888 MW.
At the same time, SEE exports towards Italy increased to 1,279 MW, from 1,052 MW, maintaining a sizeable south-to-west power flow despite Italy’s significantly higher prices.
The combination suggests that the additional renewable generation was sufficient to offset part of the decline in imports and reduce wholesale prices across much of the Balkans. The effect was strongest in Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria, while Albania remained comparatively tight and Italy continued to offer the strongest export price signal.
Evening ramp keeps volatility high
Despite lower average prices, hourly market structures remained highly volatile.
On HUPX, Friday prices dropped to as little as €51.1/MWh around hour 14, before climbing to €304.1/MWh in hour 21. The resulting €253/MWh intraday range illustrates the increasingly pronounced contrast between solar-rich daytime hours and the evening ramp.
Serbia showed a similar, although less extreme, pattern. SEEPEX prices fell to a minimum of €69.9/MWh around hour 13 before rising to €244.9/MWh in hour 21.
Serbia’s base price of €149.76/MWh remained above the seven-day average of €142.2/MWh, despite the steep day-on-day decline. This indicates that Friday’s move represented a correction from the previous session’s elevated levels rather than a return to consistently low-price conditions.
Forward market signals remain mixed
The forward curve offered a less uniformly bearish picture than the spot market.
Hungary’s Week 37 contract increased by €4.5/MWh to €180.50/MWh, while Week 38 declined by €5/MWh to €178.50/MWh. The October contract fell more sharply, by €14/MWh to €186/MWh, while the calendar contract was unchanged at €141/MWh.
The Week 37 Hungary-Germany forward spread widened by €3/MWh to €40.50/MWh, whereas the October spread narrowed by €8.5/MWh to €36/MWh.
Lower fuel and carbon prices provided some additional support for the bearish spot-market move. CEGH gas fell €1.2/MWh to €73.69/MWh, while EU carbon allowances declined €0.5/t to €83.53/t. October and fourth-quarter gas forwards both dropped €2/MWh to €73/MWh, while API 2 coal eased €0.5/t to €136.5/t.
Renewable relief, but flexibility remains the key risk
Friday’s market data point to a temporary shift away from this week’s scarcity-driven price escalation towards a more renewable-led daily price structure.
Serbia’s €149.76/MWh and Greece’s €159.57/MWh represent substantial relief from Thursday’s elevated levels. However, the sharp evening price increases — reaching more than €240/MWh in Serbia and €300/MWh in Hungary — show that the underlying market remains highly sensitive to the loss of solar generation.
The combination of high evening prices, large HUPX-Germany spreads and reduced regional imports suggests that cross-border capacity and system flexibility remain the key pricing risks for SEE markets. Friday’s decline therefore appears less like a broad return to cheap electricity and more like a shift in the daily price profile, with abundant renewable generation suppressing midday prices while evening supply constraints continue to keep the market elevated.