Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe diverged on Thursday, with Serbia and Montenegro posting double-digit gains while Hungary remained among the region’s most expensive markets despite a sharp fall in German prices.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price fell €9.5/MWh to €196.57/MWh, while Romania settled marginally higher at €196.82/MWh. Bulgaria and Greece both cleared at €192.88/MWh, Slovenia at €191.46/MWh and Croatia at €190.55/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX rose €11.9/MWh to €184.92/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN gained €12.7/MWh to €184.47/MWh.
Albania moved sharply lower, falling €30.2/MWh to €173.67/MWh, close to North Macedonia at €173.49/MWh.
The widening regional spread came as Germany dropped €30.1/MWh to €133.62/MWh, leaving Hungary nearly €63/MWh above the German market. Italy remained the highest-priced market covered in the regional data at €212.46/MWh.
The German-Hungarian gap widened despite stronger electricity flows from Central Europe into the region.
Combined imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-Slovenia area increased by around 795 MW to 3,832 MW, while total regional net imports edged up to 2,730 MW.
Average regional demand rose by 226 MW to 33,443 MW, while generation fell. Hydro production increased to 5,212 MW and wind output rose to 1,360 MW, but solar generation dropped to 6,642 MW and gas-fired output declined to 4,960 MW. Coal generation was broadly stable at 6,989 MW.
The figures suggest Thursday’s price separation was driven less by an outright regional supply shortage than by cross-border flows and congestion between markets.
Serbia remained a net importer, with average generation of about 3,174 MW against consumption of 3,676 MW, leaving a deficit of around 502 MW.
However, commercial flows from Serbia towards Hungary increased sharply. Base-load Serbia-to-Hungary flows reached around 371 MW, compared with 56 MW a day earlier, while off-peak flows averaged about 744 MW.
Serbia continued to import electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Bulgaria while sending power north towards the higher-priced Hungarian market.
That trading pattern helped support SEEPEX even as Serbian electricity demand fell from the previous day.
Montenegro showed a similar exposure to a higher-priced neighbouring market.
The country remained a net importer of around 106 MW, but commercial schedules showed exports of about 345 MW towards Italy, where prices were almost €28/MWh above BELEN.
Montenegro was meanwhile drawing electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.
Hungary’s domestic balance tightened despite the fall in HUPX. Consumption rose to about 4,749 MW, while domestic generation fell to roughly 3,482 MW, increasing net imports to around 1,267 MW.
Romania was also import-dependent. Consumption rose to about 5,898 MW, while generation slipped to around 4,719 MW, leaving net imports of about 1,180 MW.
Romanian flows included substantial imports from Hungary and Bulgaria, helping keep OPCOM almost fully aligned with HUPX.
Bulgaria remained a sizeable exporter, with generation of around 5,001 MW against consumption of 3,952 MW, while Greece also remained in surplus.
The resulting market structure left Hungary and Romania close to €197/MWh, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia and Croatia around €190-193/MWh, Serbia and Montenegro near €185/MWh, and Albania and North Macedonia below €174/MWh.
Hungarian forward prices also remained firm. October power was indicated at €200/MWh, while the October Hungary-Germany forward spread stood at around €44.50/MWh, below Thursday’s much wider spot differential.
The spot market therefore continues to show a pronounced Central European bottleneck, with cheaper German electricity failing to fully compress Hungarian prices and the Hungarian premium pulling additional power north from Serbia.
For SEE traders, the immediate risk is that persistent congestion preserves wide internal spreads even if regional generation improves, keeping price formation increasingly dependent on available cross-border capacity rather than a uniform regional supply-demand balance.