Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices strengthened on Friday as weaker wind generation, firm gas prices and lower imports tightened the regional power balance. Serbia, however, remained a clear outlier, with prices on the SEEPEX exchange trading significantly below those in neighbouring markets.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price increased by €5.60/MWh to €208.98/MWh, almost matching Romania, where the price settled at €208.46/MWh. Croatia and Slovenia followed closely at €206.74/MWh and €206.58/MWh, respectively.
Bulgaria recorded the strongest increase among the larger coupled markets, with its baseload price rising €12.20/MWh to €200.66/MWh.
The gains came despite slightly cooler weather across Hungary and most of Southeast Europe. Regional electricity demand was forecast to rise by 184 MW to an average 31,668 MW, with Romania and Bulgaria accounting for most of the increase through a combined rise of 449 MW.
Renewable generation prospects weakened. Forecast regional wind output fell by 700 MW to 1,246 MW, more than offsetting a smaller 108 MW decline in solar generation to 5,779 MW. The sharp drop in wind availability increased reliance on thermal generation and imports during periods of stronger demand.
Regional net imports declined by 180 MW to 1,370 MW. Flows from Austria and Slovakia towards Hungary and Slovenia fell by 292 MW to 1,449 MW, limiting access to relatively cheaper electricity from core European markets.
At the same time, Southeast Europe remained a net exporter to Italy, with flows of around 635 MW, up by 50 MW from the previous day. Italy’s price declined sharply but remained the highest among the monitored markets at €216.25/MWh, maintaining an incentive for exports towards the west.
Hungary’s premium over Germany widened to €13.75/MWh, up by €2.20/MWh, while its premium over Greece increased to €26.56/MWh. Germany settled at €195.23/MWh, while Greece eased to €182.42/MWh.
The persistent Hungarian premium points to constrained access to western supply and a tighter Central and Southeast European market balance. Austria traded almost in line with Hungary at €209.03/MWh, suggesting that the price pressure was affecting the wider regional import corridor rather than being confined to HUPX.
Fuel markets added further bullish pressure. Austrian CEGH gas rose by €2.40/MWh to €83.17/MWh, while Greek gas prices increased to €63/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged higher to €85.82/t, adding to the short-run generation costs of gas- and coal-fired power plants.
Forward electricity prices also remained elevated. Hungary’s October baseload contract increased by €4.50/MWh to €198/MWh, while the calendar contract rose by €4 to €154.50/MWh. October and fourth-quarter gas contracts climbed to €83.50/MWh.
Near-term Hungarian contracts moved in the opposite direction. Week 38 fell by €7.50/MWh to €183/MWh, while week 39 declined by €6/MWh to €186.50/MWh. The divergence suggests that the market expects some short-term easing, while continuing to price significant fuel and winter supply risks into October and longer-dated contracts.
Serbia was the main regional outlier. SEEPEX fell by €10.20/MWh to €164.14/MWh, leaving the Serbian market at a discount of €44.84/MWh to Hungary and more than €42/MWh below Croatia.
The unusually wide Serbian discount indicates that local supply conditions and cross-border transmission constraints prevented cheaper Serbian electricity from fully converging with the higher-priced coupled markets to the north and west. Serbia’s average net import position stood at around 650 MW, but imports did not eliminate the substantial price gap.
Prices across the southern Balkans also increased, although they remained below the Hungarian hub. Montenegro rose by €30.70/MWh to €185.33/MWh, while North Macedonia recorded a sharp €46.50/MWh increase to €179.88/MWh. Albania climbed to €197.58/MWh, narrowing its discount to Hungary to €11.40/MWh.
The combination of expensive gas, weaker wind generation and reduced imports from core Europe is leaving Southeast European power markets increasingly vulnerable to sharp daily price movements.
Serbia’s deep discount, however, highlights that transmission availability and local generation conditions remain as important as fuel fundamentals. Electricity was sufficiently abundant to push SEEPEX lower, but not sufficiently transferable across borders to ease prices in markets trading above €200/MWh.