Day-ahead electricity prices surged across much of Central and Southeast Europe for Thursday delivery as regional import requirements increased and expensive evening hours outweighed slightly weaker consumption.
Hungary’s HUPX base price climbed €42.7/MWh to €203.34/MWh, while Romania reached €202.46, Slovenia €201.43 and Croatia €201.38/MWh. Serbia recorded the strongest daily increase among the main regional markets, with SEEPEX jumping €65.1 to €174.39/MWh.
Bulgaria rose to €188.50/MWh and Greece to €183.60/MWh, while the southern Balkan markets diverged, with Montenegro falling to €154.67/MWh and North Macedonia to €133.35/MWh.
The regional rally came despite slightly weaker demand. Combined Hungary and Southeast European consumption was forecast at around 31.59 GW, about 227 MW below the previous day.
The bigger change was on the supply side. Regional generation fell to around 29.61 GW, widening the shortfall against consumption and pushing total net imports toward 1.98 GW, around 700 MW higher day on day.
Imports from the Central European core increased to around 1.99 GW, while the Hungary-Germany day-ahead spread narrowed to about €11.5/MWh from €17.5/MWh.
Hungary turns sharply more import dependent
Hungary provided the clearest example of tightening fundamentals.
Consumption was broadly unchanged at around 4.75 GW, but domestic generation fell to roughly 3.37 GW from 4.14 GW. Hungary’s net import requirement consequently more than doubled to around 1.38 GW from 631 MW.
That deterioration in the Hungarian power balance helped pull prices higher across interconnected Central and Southeast European markets.
HUPX remained one of the region’s most important price references, particularly for Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Romania.
The hourly profile showed that the pressure was concentrated around the evening ramp.
HUPX reached a maximum of about €425.7/MWh in hour 20, compared with a daily minimum of €124.8/MWh. Germany reached roughly €460.9/MWh, while Croatia and Austria also recorded maximum hourly prices above €400/MWh.
The pattern reflects the growing impact of solar generation on regional price formation. Solar output helps suppress prices during the middle of the day, but the rapid decline in photovoltaic production toward sunset leaves the system more dependent on thermal generation, imports and flexible capacity.
Serbia records €65/MWh daily jump
Serbia showed one of the clearest examples of this volatility.
SEEPEX rose to €174.39/MWh from €109.3/MWh, an increase of roughly 60% in a single day.
The maximum hourly Serbian price reached €350/MWh, while off-peak electricity averaged about €188.2/MWh, higher than the nominal peak average of around €160.5/MWh.
The physical balance, however, changed comparatively little.
Serbian consumption stood at around 3.55 GW, generation at approximately 3.04 GW, and average imports at about 516 MW, only slightly above the previous day.
The price increase therefore appears to have reflected regional scarcity and cross-border price transmission rather than a sudden increase in Serbian demand.
Serbia nevertheless retained a substantial discount to Hungary of almost €29/MWh.
That spread shows that Southeast European markets remain only partially converged. Local generation structures, available interconnector capacity and congestion continue to create significant differences between neighbouring exchanges.
Romania remains structurally tight
Romania remained another tight point in the regional system.
Consumption was around 5.66 GW, compared with generation of about 5.19 GW, leaving the country dependent on approximately 472 MW of net imports.
The absence of nuclear generation remained particularly important. With Cernavoda unavailable, Romania has become more reliant on gas, coal, hydro, wind and cross-border electricity.
Romania imported heavily from Bulgaria while also receiving substantial electricity through Hungary during peak hours.
The combination helped push OPCOM to €202.46/MWh, almost level with Hungary.
Bulgaria remained a major regional exporter, with average net exports of around 1.47 GW, although that was lower than roughly 1.77 GW the previous day.
Its large nuclear fleet continued to provide an important anchor for regional supply.
Montenegro and North Macedonia buck rally
Southern markets moved in the opposite direction.
Montenegro’s BELEN base price fell to €154.67/MWh, down about €16.6/MWh, as the country’s supply balance improved.
Montenegrin generation recovered to around 253 MW from 117 MW, while average imports narrowed to roughly 147 MW from 296 MW.
North Macedonia recorded an even sharper divergence.
Its day-ahead price dropped to €133.35/MWh, around €70/MWh below Hungary, while generation increased to approximately 697 MW from 449 MW.
The country shifted to an average export position of around 285 MW, compared with only 73 MW a day earlier.
The result was a highly fragmented regional market, with base prices ranging from approximately €133/MWh in North Macedonia to above €203/MWh in Hungary, while Italy remained higher still.
Gas adds another layer of pressure
Electricity markets are also facing a much more expensive fuel environment.
Austrian CEGH gas rose to around €80.80/MWh, while European gas markets have been trading at their highest levels since late 2022.
Hungarian Week 38 power increased to about €190.50/MWh, while the October contract rose to around €193.50/MWh.
October and fourth-quarter gas forwards were around €81/MWh and €80.50/MWh, respectively, while EU carbon allowances remained close to €85.6/t.
High gas and carbon prices increase the marginal cost of flexible thermal generation precisely when the region needs it most — during evening hours when solar output falls.
For traders, Sept. 10 therefore illustrates a market increasingly shaped not simply by total daily supply and demand, but by when flexible megawatts are available.
The widening gap between solar-heavy daytime periods and the evening ramp is increasing the value of batteries, hydro flexibility, demand response and hourly hedging. In such a market, a daily baseload price is becoming an increasingly incomplete measure of commercial exposure.