Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices fell sharply on Wednesday, September 16, as stronger solar generation and lower regional demand eased the tightness seen earlier in the week. The correction was concentrated in Greece, Bulgaria and the western Balkans, while Italy moved in the opposite direction and retained a substantial premium over neighbouring markets.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract settled at €168.02/MWh, down €21.90/MWh, or roughly 11.5%, from Tuesday. Romanian prices remained closely coupled, with OPCOM falling €20.40/MWh to €169.18/MWh, only €1.16/MWh above Hungary.
The largest declines came further south. Greece’s HENEX price dropped €46.90/MWh to €123.37/MWh, the lowest national average in the region, while Bulgaria’s IBEX contract lost €35.80/MWh to €140.29/MWh. Serbia declined €30.80/MWh to €151.88/MWh, and North Macedonia fell €31.30/MWh to €153.95/MWh.
Croatia and Slovenia continued to trade close to the Hungarian benchmark. CROPEX settled at €168.92/MWh, down €19.70/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP market fell €18.10/MWh to €170.45/MWh. Albania declined €34.00/MWh to €169.96/MWh. Montenegro registered the smallest day-on-day correction among the SEE markets, falling €8.50/MWh to €169.91/MWh.
The regional decline was driven principally by a substantial increase in expected solar output. Combined SEE and Hungarian solar generation was forecast at 6,714 MW, an increase of 1,087 MW from the previous day. That more than offset a 539 MW decline in wind generation, forecast at 1,859 MW.
Regional electricity consumption was projected at 29,419 MW, down 336 MW on the day. Hungarian demand declined by 103 MW to 4,481 MW, while Greek consumption dropped 153 MW to 5,784 MW. Demand in Romania and Bulgaria rose slightly, by 43 MW, to a combined 9,160 MW, while Slovenia and Croatia slipped 22 MW to 8,690 MW.
The effect of solar generation was particularly visible in the hourly price structure. Hungarian peakload averaged only €132.80/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €203.30/MWh. HUPX prices fell as low as €2.80/MWh during hour 14, before climbing to a daily maximum of €311.60/MWh in hour 20.
Greece recorded an even deeper midday adjustment. Its peakload contract averaged €59.40/MWh, with at least one hour clearing at zero, while off-peak electricity averaged €187.30/MWh. Bulgarian peakload averaged €93.30/MWh, against the same €187.30/MWh off-peak level. The widening difference between midday and evening prices underlines the growing influence of solar production and the continuing scarcity of flexible capacity after sunset.
Cross-border conditions amplified the market split. Net imports into the combined Hungary-SEE area dropped by 808 MW to only 255 MW. Flows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia declined by 919 MW to 701 MW, while the region was exporting an average 892 MW towards Italy.
The reduction in core imports coincided with a complete reversal of the Hungarian-German spot spread. HUPX traded €14.32/MWh below Germany, compared with a Hungarian premium of about €9.90/MWh one day earlier. German EPEX prices increased €2.30/MWh to €182.33/MWh, while Austria declined €6.10/MWh to €183.73/MWh.
Italy remained the clear regional outlier. The national day-ahead price rose €4.10/MWh to €227.74/MWh, leaving Italy at a premium of €59.72/MWh to Hungary, €87.45/MWh to Bulgaria and more than €104/MWh to Greece. Italy’s firm profile, including a minimum hourly price of €185.10/MWh, contrasted sharply with the near-zero midday prices recorded in parts of SEE.
The combination of Italian strength and softer SEE prices created a strong commercial signal for north-to-south and east-to-west exports where transmission capacity was available. The 892 MW average flow towards Italy helped absorb part of the regional surplus but was insufficient to prevent the pronounced decline in SEE peakload prices.
Forward markets also weakened. Hungary’s week 39 contract fell €8.00/MWh to €183.50/MWh, while week 40 dropped €15.00/MWh to €183.00/MWh. The October Hungarian contract declined €7.50/MWh to €197.50/MWh, and calendar 2026 fell €5.50/MWh to €151.50/MWh.
The Hungarian forward premium over Germany remained positive despite the sell-off. Hungary traded €15.50/MWh above Germany for week 39, €18.50/MWh higher for week 40 and €32.00/MWh higher for October. The calendar spread stood at €21.50/MWh, up €0.50/MWh on the day, indicating that the structural risk premium attached to Hungarian supply has not disappeared despite the near-term spot correction.
Fuel and carbon markets offered additional bearish support. Austrian CEGH gas declined €3.10/MWh to €81.63/MWh, while the October gas forward fell €2.50/MWh to €81.50/MWh. European carbon allowances dropped €2.40 per tonne to €85.61, reducing the marginal cost of gas- and coal-fired generation. October coal was unchanged at $140.50 per tonne, while the fourth-quarter contract eased $0.50 to $140.00 per tonne.
The daily correction therefore reflected more than a broad decline in fuel costs. A 1.1 GW increase in solar output compressed peak prices, lower consumption reduced system tightness, and constrained access to the high-priced Italian market left surplus electricity within SEE. Evening prices remained elevated, however, showing that the region’s underlying flexibility shortage is still present once solar production falls away.