Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices fell sharply on Tuesday as stronger solar generation eased daytime supply, although weaker wind output, rising consumption and expensive gas kept evening prices elevated.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract dropped €61.00/MWh to €189.96/MWh, reversing part of Monday’s spike. Romania traded almost level at €189.58/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia settled at €188.53/MWh and €188.59/MWh, respectively.
The close alignment showed strong price coupling across the central regional corridor. Hungary’s premium to Germany narrowed to €9.89/MWh, while Austria traded just €0.15/MWh below HUPX.
Prices were lower further south. Serbia’s SEEPEX fell €16.70/MWh to €182.72/MWh, a €7.25/MWh discount to Hungary. Montenegro settled at €178.44/MWh, Bulgaria at €176.06/MWh and Greece at a regional low of €170.25/MWh.
Albania remained the most expensive SEE market at €204.00/MWh, while North Macedonia bucked the regional decline, rising €5.60/MWh to €185.21/MWh.
Italy’s national price reached €223.68/MWh, maintaining a premium of almost €34/MWh over Hungary and more than €41/MWh over Serbia. The spread supported average SEE exports of 759 MW towards Italy.
Regional solar output was forecast to increase by 655 MW to 6,250 MW, pushing afternoon prices sharply lower. HUPX fell to a daily minimum of €61.10/MWh in hour 15, with similar lows in Romania, Croatia and Slovenia.
Prices rebounded when solar generation declined. Hungary and Romania climbed above €305/MWh in hour 20, while Serbia reached €315.10/MWh and Albania peaked at €337/MWh.
The widening gap between afternoon and evening prices pushed Hungarian peakload down to €164.90/MWh, below its €215.10/MWh off-peak contract. Serbia showed a similar pattern, with peakload at €174.70/MWh and off-peak power at €190.80/MWh.
The price profile strengthens the commercial case for batteries, demand response and flexible thermal or hydropower capacity able to shift output into the evening ramp.
Combined Hungary and SEE consumption was forecast to rise by 1,006 MW to 29,983 MW, while generation slipped to 28,810 MW. The region consequently moved from net exports of 140 MW on Monday to net imports of 1,173 MW.
Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia averaged 1,699 MW. Regional wind output was forecast to fall by 512 MW to 1,798 MW, leaving higher solar generation unable to cover the evening deficit.
Bulgaria remained the largest exporter at 1,165 MW, although that was sharply below Monday’s 2,092 MW. Bosnia and Herzegovina increased exports to 434 MW, while Serbia imported 715 MW and Croatia 468 MW.
Forward prices remained firm despite the spot correction. Hungarian October baseload rose €9/MWh to €205/MWh, opening a €32.50/MWh premium to Germany. Week 39 increased to €191.50/MWh, while week 40 advanced to €198/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas gained €2.80/MWh to €84.74/MWh, while EU carbon allowances rose €2.50 to €87.99 per tonne, maintaining pressure on thermal generation costs.
Tuesday’s fall removed much of Monday’s exceptional scarcity premium, but the underlying balance remained tight. The region required stronger central European imports even as higher Italian prices pulled electricity westward.
For traders, the clearest signal was no longer the daily average but the widening intraday spread: cheap solar-heavy afternoons followed by another sharp evening climb. With Hungarian October power still priced at €205/MWh, the forward market is betting that Tuesday’s relief may prove temporary.