Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rose sharply on September 21 as weekday demand recovered, while Hungary retained a substantial premium over most neighbouring markets despite stronger renewable generation.
Hungary’s HUPX benchmark climbed by €46.40/MWh to €188.74/MWh, the highest price among the region’s main interconnected markets. Romania followed at €183.27/MWh, Greece at €181.18/MWh and Bulgaria at €177.47/MWh.
Prices also increased strongly across the Western Balkans. Albania settled at €176.12/MWh, Montenegro at €163.20/MWh and North Macedonia at €162.16/MWh. Croatia reached €155.92/MWh, Slovenia €148.12/MWh and Serbia’s SEEPEX market €147.71/MWh.
The Serbian market recorded one of the region’s lowest averages despite rising by €30.20/MWh from the previous session. SEEPEX traded at a discount of €41.03/MWh to HUPX, while Slovenia’s discount stood at €40.61/MWh and Croatia’s at €32.82/MWh.
The divide showed that the price increase was not uniform across the region. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece formed a higher-priced eastern cluster, while Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia remained considerably cheaper. Montenegro and North Macedonia occupied the middle of the regional range.
Italy remained the most expensive neighbouring market at €224.23/MWh, creating a premium of €35.50/MWh over Hungary and considerably wider margins over the Western Balkans. Austria settled at €137.98/MWh, while Germany remained the cheapest major benchmark at €96.60/MWh despite a daily rise of almost €75/MWh.
The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed by €28.40/MWh but remained exceptionally wide at €92.14/MWh. Hungary’s premium over Greece increased to €7.56/MWh.
Regional electricity consumption was forecast at an average 29,301 MW, up 4,081 MW from Sunday as industrial and commercial activity resumed. Demand increased by 1,858 MW in Romania and Bulgaria, 1,288 MW in Slovenia and Croatia, 476 MW in Hungary and 458 MW in Greece.
The demand recovery outweighed an increase in renewable output. Regional solar generation was forecast to rise by 1,474 MW to 5,808 MW, while wind output increased by 356 MW to 2,009 MW. The combined solar and wind forecast therefore reached about 7.82 GW.
Net imports into Hungary and Southeast Europe declined by 591 MW to 2,095 MW, even as consumption increased. Gross inflows from Austria and Slovakia rose slightly to 3,001 MW, indicating that higher regional generation and changing cross-border flows absorbed part of the weekday demand rebound.
Hungary remained a net importer of around 1,031 MW. Romania imported approximately 912 MW, Croatia 700 MW, Serbia 602 MW and Greece 113 MW. Bulgaria stood out as a net exporter of about 1,461 MW.
Flows towards Italy averaged about 1,039 MW, supported by the Italian market’s significant premium over prices across the Balkans. That export pull reduced the volume available inside Southeast Europe and strengthened the market incentive for north-south and east-west cross-border trading.
Forward prices reinforced the near-term bullish signal. Hungarian week 39 power rose by €14.50/MWh to €205/MWh, while week 40 gained €9/MWh to €197.50/MWh. The October contract increased by €9.50/MWh to €208/MWh, and the calendar 2026 product advanced by €4/MWh to €153.50/MWh.
Hungary’s forward premium over Germany reached €35/MWh for October, compared with €20/MWh for week 40 and €21.50/MWh for calendar 2026. The structure suggested that traders continued to price transmission constraints and regional supply risk into Hungarian contracts beyond the immediate spot session.
Energy inputs offered little relief. Austrian CEGH gas traded at €79.95/MWh, while October and fourth-quarter gas forwards increased by €3.50/MWh to €81/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €86.89 a tonne.
Coal moved in the opposite direction, with the October contract declining by €2 to €136.50 a tonne and the fourth-quarter product falling by €1.50 to €137 a tonne. However, weaker coal prices were insufficient to offset the effect of expensive gas, carbon costs and stronger electricity demand.
The next weather change may provide some demand support rather than relief. Average temperatures across Hungary and Southeast Europe, excluding Greece, were forecast to fall from around 19.2 degrees Celsius on September 21 to 14.4 degrees on September 22, with Serbia dropping from 18.8 to 14.2 degrees and Bulgaria from 19.1 to 13.8 degrees.
The immediate market signal is a return of strong weekday pricing, but the unusually wide differences between neighbouring exchanges remain the more important trading feature. Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia continue to offer lower-priced supply, while limited cross-border capacity and Italian export demand prevent those discounts from fully compressing the Hungarian and eastern Balkan markets.