Day-ahead electricity prices rose across most of southeastern Europe for Friday delivery as weaker wind generation increased the region’s import requirement, widening Hungary’s premium to Germany despite stronger solar output.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price increased by €2.50 to €180.25/MWh, the highest among the main Central and Southeast European markets outside Italy. The Hungarian-German spread widened by nearly €25 to €59.72/MWh as Germany’s price fell €22.40 to €120.53/MWh.
The widening spread coincided with a sharp increase in electricity flowing into Hungary and southeastern Europe from Austria and Slovakia. Core imports were forecast at an average 2,605 MW, up 1,252 MW from Thursday, while the region’s overall net import position rose by 1,443 MW to 2,569 MW.
The change was driven mainly by wind. Regional wind output was forecast to fall by 932 MW to 1,140 MW, more than offsetting a 1,065 MW increase in solar generation to 7,208 MW.
Consumption was expected to rise only moderately, by 222 MW to 29,600 MW, despite the regional average temperature increasing by around one degree Celsius. The imbalance between lower wind supply and broadly stable demand therefore had to be covered by imports and more expensive thermal generation.
Prices strengthened most sharply in Serbia, where SEEPEX jumped €50.50 to €159.62/MWh, although it remained €20.63/MWh below Hungary. Greece rose €26.60 to €168.90/MWh, while Albania gained €24.10 to €171.58/MWh.
Romania increased €7.30 to €176.48/MWh, narrowing its discount to Hungary to just €3.77/MWh. Bulgaria advanced €10.40 to €169.55/MWh.
The regional movement was uneven. Slovenia fell €23.20 to €168.41/MWh, while Croatia eased €1.90 to €170.33/MWh. Montenegro rose to €148.13/MWh, and North Macedonia remained the cheapest monitored SEE market at €144.54/MWh.
Italy stood at the other extreme, with its national price slipping slightly to €220.83/MWh. That left Italy at a premium of more than €40/MWh to Hungary and around €50-76/MWh to most southeastern markets, preserving a strong commercial incentive for westward exports. The region was forecast to send an average 464 MW toward Italy even while relying heavily on northern imports.
Power-balance data showed Bulgaria as the largest regional exporter at about 1,551 MW, followed by Greece at 602 MW. Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Serbia remained net importers, with Hungary importing around 1,744 MW and Romania 1,203 MW.
Forward prices also strengthened. Hungarian week 39 power rose €11 to €190.50/MWh, week 40 gained €3 to €188.50/MWh, and October increased €3.50 to €198.50/MWh. The calendar 2026 contract was unchanged at €149.50/MWh.
The power gains came despite weaker fuel markets. Austrian CEGH gas dropped €4.90 to €78.50/MWh, October gas declined to €77.50/MWh, and October coal eased to $138.50 a tonne. EU carbon allowances moved the other way, rising €1.30 to €86.03 a tonne.
Friday’s market left southeastern Europe caught between cheap German supply to the north and expensive Italian demand to the west. With wind output falling sharply, transmission capacity rather than regional consumption became the decisive constraint — pulling more electricity through Austria and Slovakia while maintaining exports toward Italy.