Southeast European power traders are likely to keep a close watch on Romania, Hungary and Serbia in the coming sessions after Week 27 highlighted a clear tightening trend across the region. Higher electricity demand, weaker renewable generation, softer hydro output and growing import requirements combined to support stronger wholesale power prices and create a more constructive trading environment.
Romania and Hungary remained the region’s most expensive electricity markets during the week of 29 June–5 July, with average day-ahead prices of EUR 164.31/MWh and EUR 162.04/MWh, respectively. Croatia followed at EUR 142.57/MWh, while Serbia posted one of the strongest weekly gains, with average prices rising 26.3% to EUR 139.93/MWh.
Serbia delivered the clearest short-term trading signal after moving from a marginal net import position of 7 GWh in Week 26 to 90 GWh in Week 27. The increase in imports coincided with a sharp decline in thermal generation following the absence of lignite-fired output during the week, leaving the country more dependent on regional electricity imports and cross-border market conditions.
As a result, the Romania–Hungary–Serbia–Croatia corridor has emerged as the key trading focus, where elevated power prices coincide with stronger import demand and tighter domestic supply. These factors continue to support a bullish outlook for regional electricity markets, particularly during periods of higher system stress.
Although Greece and Bulgaria remained the lowest-priced markets in Southeast Europe, averaging EUR 112.81/MWh and EUR 114.61/MWh, respectively, prices in both countries stayed comfortably above the EUR 100/MWh threshold. Italy was the only major regional market to move lower during the week, with average prices declining 6.8% to EUR 134.85/MWh.
From a trading perspective, the strongest opportunities are likely to remain concentrated in the evening peak hours rather than in outright baseload positions. Market data continues to point to the period between 19:00 and 22:00 as the main stress window, when solar generation rapidly declines and power systems become increasingly reliant on dispatchable thermal generation and imported electricity.
Cross-border flows further reinforce the tightening picture. Total SEE net imports increased 28.2%, rising from 972 GWh to 1.25 TWh. Hungary’s net imports surged 157.9% to 202 GWh, Romania’s imports climbed 44.8% to 194 GWh, while Serbia’s import needs expanded significantly. Although Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye remained net exporters, their export surpluses narrowed during the week.
Natural gas continues to provide an important signal for power traders. TTF gas futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% from the previous week, before climbing above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the reporting period. The one-month TTF contract was trading near EUR 49.045/MWh as the report was finalised. Combined with a 6.5% weekly increase in thermal power generation across Southeast Europe, firmer gas prices have the potential to further strengthen peak electricity prices.
Looking ahead, traders should continue monitoring regional price spreads between Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Croatia, alongside evening peak prices, cross-border import flows, TTF and THE gas markets, and short-term changes in wind and hydro generation. Unless cooler weather, stronger renewable output, improved hydro conditions or a recovery in Serbian thermal generation ease import dependence, the near-term outlook for Southeast European peak power prices remains supportive.