Serbia is facing renewed pressure on electricity procurement costs ahead of November as outages in Romania add to constraints on regional supply. A coal-fired unit has failed while both reactors at the Cernavodă nuclear plant remain offline, and drought has reduced hydropower production. The risks are heightened by the Serbian electricity system’s reliance on imports.
Romania’s 285 MW Turceni 5 unit disconnected from the grid at 08:02 on Tuesday after a boiler failure, according to Transelectrica data reported by Romanian energy publication Economica.net. Both Cernavodă reactors, with combined capacity of approximately 1,350 MW, are also shut because exceptionally low Danube levels have restricted cooling-water availability. Romanian authorities have warned that hydrological conditions could prevent either reactor from restarting during November, while drought and falling reservoir levels are limiting domestic hydropower output.
The simultaneous constraints are creating regional electricity supply risks as winter demand approaches. Serbia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania are increasingly competing for available generation and cross-border transmission capacity. For Serbia, the potential cost exposure is substantial: preliminary estimates indicate net imports of approximately 515 GWh during October 1–22, at an estimated average price of €209/MWh.
Romanian generation outages narrow available supply
The Turceni outage came at a difficult time for Romania’s electricity system. The unit, operated by Complexul Energetic Oltenia, had experienced a similar technical failure earlier in October, and its provisional return-to-service date is November 1, subject to repairs and technical readiness. Following the latest outage, Romanian coal-fired power stations were injecting less than 500 MW into the national system, according to the reported Transelectrica operating data.
Romania has already lost a significant share of its normally available baseload generation because of the Cernavodă shutdown. The plant’s two reactors were taken offline in July and August under controlled safety procedures in response to inadequate Danube water conditions. Their prolonged unavailability has increased the system’s reliance on gas-fired generation, wind power, reduced hydroelectric output and imports.
The constraint also affects the system’s ability to meet evening demand peaks, when solar production falls and consumption rises. Thermal and nuclear plants can normally supply electricity during those hours, but the loss of nuclear generation leaves Romania with fewer options unless it increases imports or calls on other dispatchable plants. The Turceni failure further narrows those options.
Romania considers emergency measures for November
Romania’s Energy Ministry has proposed extending extraordinary electricity market safeguards until November 30, citing generation shortages and uncertainty about when the Cernavodă reactors can restart. The measures would allow transmission system operator Transelectrica to respond if system security is threatened. Existing emergency powers include reducing electricity export capacity, cancelling scheduled exports and, in more severe circumstances, restricting selected electricity consumption.
These are contingency powers; they do not indicate that electricity exports have already been prohibited. Under normal market conditions, cross-border flows reflect available transmission capacity, market prices and scheduled commercial transactions. Emergency restrictions could change those conditions and reduce the electricity available to neighbouring systems.
Romanian authorities expect evening peak demand to reach approximately 8,500 MW in November, increasing the importance of reliable conventional generation and imports. Reduced water reserves also limit the ability of hydropower plants to raise output during expensive evening hours without weakening reserves needed later in winter. With nuclear generation unavailable, coal assets ageing and hydropower constrained, Romania could remain dependent on imported electricity even during temporary improvements in wind production.
Serbia’s imports expose the power sector to costs
Serbia enters the period with its own generation and procurement challenges. State-owned utility Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS) has recorded weaker-than-planned electricity production, particularly from coal-fired generation, increasing its exposure to wholesale markets. Preliminary estimates for October 1–22 put net imports at approximately 23.4 GWh per day, equivalent to almost 1 GW of continuous imported power.
At that rate, a full October would imply approximately 726 GWh of net imports and expenditure of about €150 million at the same average import price. Those figures are extrapolations, not confirmed full-month results. The estimated cumulative net electricity trade deficit since the beginning of 2026 has reached approximately €369 million, reflecting Serbia’s reliance on external supply when domestic generation is weaker.
Romania’s difficulties do not necessarily mean that Serbia imports electricity directly from Romanian producers. The financial link runs through the wider interconnected electricity market: when Romania needs additional imports, it competes for available electricity in Hungary, Bulgaria and other European markets. This can affect regional price spreads and cross-border flows, particularly where transmission constraints limit access to lower-priced electricity elsewhere.
For Serbia, the impact depends on its actual hourly net import position, contractual arrangements, domestic generation and the prices at which additional electricity can be secured. The estimated net import bill for October 1–22 was €107.6 million in just over three weeks, showing how domestic generation shortfalls can translate into substantial financial exposure when regional wholesale prices are elevated.
Day-ahead prices remain elevated across the region
Day-ahead electricity prices for delivery on October 27 declined across much of Southeast Europe, amid stronger renewable generation forecasts and some easing of regional supply conditions. Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price fell by €43.4/MWh to €241.69/MWh, while Hungary’s HUPX price declined to €241.30/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM price was €255.49/MWh, and Bulgaria’s IBEX price was €254.58/MWh.
The Romanian premium over Serbia was approximately €13.80/MWh. These prices were set in the previous day’s auction, before the October 27 Turceni outage, and therefore do not measure the market’s direct response to the equipment failure. They nevertheless show the continuing price premium in Romania and Bulgaria compared with Hungary and Serbia.
The regional market remains vulnerable to sharp price increases when low wind output, constrained hydropower and strong evening demand coincide. For Serbia, the late afternoon and evening are expected to remain critical trading periods, as solar generation falls and regional systems rely more heavily on conventional generation and imports.
Procurement prices could add to Serbia’s import bill
Serbia’s financial exposure depends on how much electricity still needs to be purchased at market-linked prices. Using October’s estimated 515 GWh of net imports as an illustrative benchmark, a €50/MWh rise in the average procurement price would add approximately €25.8 million to the cost of buying the same volume. This is a sensitivity calculation, not a forecast of additional expenditure.
The calculation shows why relatively small wholesale price movements can have a material effect when a system imports hundreds of gigawatt-hours. Exposure varies among market participants: EPS, independent suppliers, industrial consumers and electricity traders may have different forward contracts, hedges and spot-market positions. Buyers with substantial fixed-price coverage could face limited immediate additional costs, while importers relying on short-term procurement could be more exposed.
For energy-intensive manufacturers, sustained electricity price increases can weaken operating margins, particularly where supply agreements are indexed to wholesale markets. Steel producers, foundries, cement manufacturers, mining companies and other large industrial consumers are especially sensitive to electricity costs, although exposure varies according to contract terms and production technology.
November will test regional supply and financing
The regional challenge involves more than the failure of one Romanian coal unit: several sources that normally provide flexibility to the interconnected electricity system are constrained at the same time. Romania’s nuclear shutdown has removed a major source of continuous generation, drought has reduced hydropower availability, coal plants are facing reliability problems and seasonal solar production is declining. These conditions increase the importance of dispatchable generation, stored energy and dependable cross-border capacity.
Reducing Serbia’s exposure would require improving domestic generation availability, coordinating maintenance schedules, securing competitively priced import contracts and managing peak-hour procurement. Over the longer term, investment in storage, grid flexibility and diversified generation could reduce reliance on expensive imports. Such investments cannot eliminate the immediate risks posed by the approaching winter.
Key indicators over the coming weeks include the prospects for restarting Cernavodă, Romanian coal-unit availability, regional hydropower reserves, cross-border capacity allocations and the relationship between SEEPEX, OPCOM, HUPX and IBEX prices. Romania’s latest outage has not produced a verified new price shock in Serbia, but it has weakened a neighbouring power system already under stress. With Serbia’s October net import bill estimated above €100 million, another prolonged period of tight regional supply could increase the financial burden on the electricity sector.
The central issue for November is whether Southeast Europe’s remaining dispatchable capacity and cross-border networks can meet rising demand without forcing import-dependent markets to buy electricity at increasingly expensive peak-hour prices. Serbia’s power system is already heavily dependent on imports, and the country’s procurement costs will depend on available generation, market conditions and the capacity to secure electricity across borders.