Day-ahead power prices rose sharply across most of Southeast Europe on Monday, October 26, as weekday demand returned and tightened the regional market. Serbia recorded the highest price, at €285.08/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX price was up €21.4/MWh from Sunday, narrowly ahead of North Macedonia at €284.87/MWh. Romania rose by almost €40 to €271.92/MWh, while Hungary reached €267.40/MWh, Bulgaria €263.39/MWh and Greece €258.52/MWh. Croatia, Austria, Italy, Slovenia and Montenegro formed a lower-priced group, with prices around €238-243/MWh.
The increases were broad: Croatia gained €39.2/MWh day on day, Romania €39.9/MWh, Slovenia €39.1/MWh, Bulgaria €33.8/MWh and Greece €31.1/MWh. Hungary’s rise was more limited at €8.1/MWh, while Montenegro increased by €19/MWh to €238.55/MWh.
Higher demand coincides with stronger generation
The main fundamental change was the return of working-day demand following the weekend. Aggregate consumption in Hungary and the monitored SEE markets climbed to 31,816 MW, an increase of 3,174 MW, or about 11%, from Sunday. Regional net imports fell by 336 MW to 4,648 MW, while core imports from Austria and Slovakia eased slightly to 4,632 MW.
Regional generation rose from 23,657 MW on Sunday to 27,168 MW on Monday, an increase of about 3.5 GW that more than covered the increase in consumption. The price move therefore cannot be explained simply by a worsening in the aggregate supply-demand balance. The data instead point to the return of weekday peak-load pricing, alongside continuing cross-border constraints and expensive marginal generation in the eastern part of the interconnected market.
Serbia and North Macedonia record the highest prices
Serbia’s SEEPEX base-load price of €285.08/MWh was roughly €18/MWh above Hungary, €22/MWh above Bulgaria, €27/MWh above Greece and about €44/MWh above Italy’s national price. Prices also remained high across the day: the Serbian market’s minimum was €220/MWh, and its maximum reached €375.1/MWh in hour 18. Peak-load power averaged €283.7/MWh and off-peak electricity €286.5/MWh, so the premium was not limited to a few evening hours.
North Macedonia’s base-load price was almost identical, at €284.87/MWh, forming a high-price pocket with Serbia above the larger Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian markets. For traders, the Serbian premium has implications for cross-border trading where transmission capacity is available, as well as for physical supply costs faced by Serbian utilities, suppliers and industrial consumers exposed to day-ahead procurement.
Germany’s recovery leaves a wide east-west price spread
German day-ahead power rebounded from €13.7/MWh on Sunday to €116.57/MWh on Monday, a rise of almost €103/MWh. Hungary nevertheless remained €150.83/MWh more expensive than Germany. The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed sharply from around €245.6/MWh a day earlier, largely because German prices recovered rather than because prices in Central and Southeast Europe weakened.
Hungary continued to serve as a major transit market between cheaper Central European supply and tighter eastern markets. Commercial schedules showed substantial volumes entering Hungary from Austria and Slovakia, while power also flowed east towards Romania. Hungary-to-Romania base-load flows reached about 1,684 MW, including around 1,920 MW during peak hours.
The flow pattern shows why lower German prices do not automatically translate into equally low SEE prices: cross-border capacity and regional flow patterns affect how much western supply can reach deficit markets.
Bulgaria moves into net imports as consumption rises
Bulgaria’s consumption increased to 4,219 MW, while generation stood at 3,931 MW. The country shifted to net imports of about 288 MW, after recording net exports of 217 MW on Sunday. IBEX rose to €263.39/MWh, reinforcing the higher-price structure from Romania and Bulgaria through Serbia and North Macedonia.
Bulgaria is an important generation and transit hub for the southern Balkans. Its move from export availability to import demand removed supply that could otherwise help cap prices elsewhere in the region.
Albania diverges from the regional rise
Albania was the main exception to the broader market increase. ALPEX fell by €105.1/MWh from Sunday to €214.76/MWh, leaving the country more than €70/MWh below Serbia. The divergence extended across the Albanian price curve: peak electricity averaged €213.4/MWh and off-peak electricity €216.1/MWh, with prices ranging from €131/MWh to €325/MWh.
The sharp decline against a generally rising regional market highlighted the sensitivity of individual Balkan bidding zones to local balances, cross-border schedules and available transmission capacity.
Forward prices and fuel markets remain firm
The forward curve strengthened considerably. Hungarian week 44 power rose by €14/MWh to €279.50/MWh, while week 45 increased by €23/MWh to €294.50/MWh. November power gained €17/MWh to €272.50/MWh.
The supporting fuel complex remained expensive, with CEGH gas at €95.11/MWh, November gas at €95.50/MWh and EU carbon allowances at €86.26/t. Coal forwards also moved higher. The forward-market moves indicated that Monday’s price increase was not being treated purely as a one-day return of demand after the weekend.
For SEE market participants, the key signal was the persistence of a high-price eastern European zone despite stronger regional generation and lower aggregate net imports. Serbia at €285/MWh, North Macedonia near the same level and Hungary still €151/MWh above Germany showed the continuing importance of cross-border constraints and regional marginal pricing relative to the headline European supply picture.
Until those spreads compress materially, access to transmission capacity, generation availability and hourly positioning between Central Europe and the Balkans are likely to remain the dominant drivers of short-term SEE trading economics.