January 2026 delivered strong renewable output growth across much of South-East Europe, yet electricity prices rose sharply in multiple markets. Electricity.Trade analysis shows that this apparent contradiction reflects the structural limits of renewables as a price suppressant.
Renewable generation increased +53.05% in Croatia, +43.59% in Greece, +39.81% in Italy, and +37.80% in Serbia. Despite this, prices surged in gas-exposed systems. Electricity.Trade explains that renewable output failed to align temporally with peak demand and did not displace gas during critical evening hours.
Gas-fired generation therefore remained marginal in Hungary, Romania, Italy, and Bulgaria. Carbon costs compounded the effect. At EUA levels near €70–75/tCO₂, gas-linked marginal pricing translated into sustained price elevation even during high renewable penetration.
Hydro-rich markets behaved differently. Greece and Serbia temporarily decoupled, illustrating that dispatchable renewables, not intermittent ones, provide effective price insulation.
Electricity.Trade concludes that January reinforced a key trading lesson: renewable growth alone does not guarantee price moderation. Without storage, hydro, or flexible reserves, gas remains decisive.
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