South-East European day-ahead power markets moved higher in March, with clearing prices rising across most exchanges as a sharp rebound in gas prices tightened the marginal cost base, while traded volumes showed a more uneven, market-specific pattern.
Regional benchmarks shifted upward after a softer February, with average day-ahead prices clustering in the €95–€120/MWh range across core SEE hubs. Italy remained the most expensive market at €143.36/MWh, reinforcing its role as the region’s price anchor, while Hungary followed at €117.36/MWh and Croatia at €110.12/MWh. Romania and Bulgaria cleared at €105.15/MWh and €103.51/MWh respectively, with Greece and Serbia converging near €95/MWh. In contrast, Türkiye decoupled sharply, with prices dropping to €31.77/MWh, reflecting weaker demand and different market fundamentals.
The upward correction in clearing prices was largely driven by higher gas input costs, as TTF futures moved above €50/MWh, feeding directly into thermal generation bids. Lower hydro output across much of the region and uneven renewable generation further tightened supply, increasing reliance on gas-fired units and amplifying price sensitivity.
Daily and hourly price formation pointed to growing intraday volatility. Midday prices were typically compressed by solar output, while evening peaks widened significantly, particularly in tighter systems such as Serbia, where balancing needs pushed prices sharply higher during ramping hours.
On the volume side, liquidity remained highly concentrated. Italy dominated regional trading activity with approximately 24.2 TWh traded during the month, far exceeding all other markets. Greece followed with around 4.37 TWh, while Bulgaria and Hungary each recorded volumes close to 2.8 TWh. Romania traded roughly 1.35 TWh, Croatia 0.75 TWh, and Serbia remained structurally illiquid at just 0.46 TWh.
Monthly volume movements diverged across the region. Greece recorded a +7.4% month-on-month increase in traded electricity, while Italy posted a modest +2.6% rise, suggesting stable demand and continued cross-border activity. Bulgaria also saw higher liquidity, with volumes up +5.6%, reflecting stronger market participation.
In contrast, Hungary and Romania saw declines in traded volumes of -7.8% and -10.0% respectively, indicating softer demand or reduced trading opportunities. Serbia’s volumes increased by +12.3% month-on-month, although absolute levels remained low, highlighting the limited depth of the SEEPEX exchange. Croatia posted a marginal +2.3% increase.
Daily volume patterns confirmed a hub-and-spoke structure in regional trading. Italy consistently traded between 700–900 GWh/day, while Greece averaged 120–150 GWh/day and Bulgaria and Hungary ranged between 80–120 GWh/day. Serbia’s daily traded volumes remained below 20 GWh, underlining its exposure to sharper price movements due to limited liquidity.
The relationship between clearing prices and volumes remained non-linear. High-liquidity markets such as Italy maintained elevated price levels due to their dependence on gas-fired generation, while smaller markets with lower liquidity, notably Serbia, exhibited stronger price volatility despite lower traded volumes. Markets with more diversified generation mixes, such as Bulgaria and Romania, recorded more moderate price increases alongside relatively stable liquidity.
March trading confirmed that SEE power markets remain structurally tied to gas price movements, with hydro variability and renewable output driving short-term divergences. Liquidity continues to be concentrated in a limited number of exchanges, while smaller markets show increased sensitivity to supply-demand imbalances, reinforcing volatility across the region.