In the third week of May, energy commodity markets showed mixed and volatile movements, with Brent oil, TTF gas, and EU carbon allowances each reacting differently to shifting geopolitical expectations, supply outlooks, and seasonal demand conditions. Brent crude oil futures for the front-month contract on the ICE exchange reached their weekly peak of $112.10/bbl on Monday, May 18, before declining steadily through the week to a low of $102.58/bbl on Thursday, May 21. A mild rebound followed on Friday, with prices closing at $103.54/bbl, which represented a 5.2% decline compared to the previous week. The downward pressure was driven primarily by expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potential recovery in global supply, and improved diplomatic signals between the United States and Iran, reducing fears of disruptions in key transport routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
TTF natural gas futures in Europe also exhibited early-week strength followed by a corrective decline. Prices peaked on Tuesday, May 19 at €51.82/MWh, their highest level since early April, before falling to a weekly low of €48.68/MWh on Friday, May 22, ending the week 3.0% below the previous Friday’s close. The decline was supported by reduced concerns over LNG supply disruptions, alongside weaker gas demand in Europe due to higher temperatures, which helped ease upward pricing pressure in the second half of the week.
In contrast, EU carbon allowance futures for the December 2026 contract on the EEX market showed a more stable but slightly bullish trend. Prices fluctuated within a narrow range, dipping to €74.95/t on Thursday, May 21, before rebounding to a weekly high of €76.94/t on Friday, May 22, finishing 1.7% higher than the previous week. Despite short-term volatility, carbon prices remained supported by underlying market expectations and structural emissions demand.
Overall, the week highlighted a divergent behavior across key energy benchmarks, with oil and gas easing under improving supply sentiment and weaker demand signals, while carbon markets maintained resilience with a modest upward bias, AleaSoft reports.