Brent crude oil futures for the front month on the ICE market rose sharply during the third week of July, reaching their highest level since 12 June as geopolitical tensions intensified and concerns over potential energy supply disruptions increased.
The contract settled at a weekly low of $83.30/bbl on Monday, 13 July, before rising throughout the remainder of the week. Brent reached a weekly settlement high of $88.10/bbl on Friday, 17 July.
The Friday settlement was 16% above the previous Friday’s level, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, reflecting a significant increase in the risk premium embedded in crude oil prices.
The rally was driven by escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments.
TTF front-month natural gas futures traded on ICE followed a similar upward trajectory during the third week of July. The contract settled at a weekly low of €51.36/MWh on Monday, 13 July, before rising in each subsequent trading session.
TTF futures reached a weekly settlement high of €57.44/MWh on Friday, 17 July, the highest level since 21 March. The settlement was 18% above the previous Friday’s level, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
Concerns over LNG supply from the Persian Gulf, combined with escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, provided the main upward catalyst for European natural gas prices during the week.
EU carbon allowance futures for the December 2026 reference contract on the EEX also experienced significant volatility. Prices reached a weekly settlement high of €81.39/t on Tuesday, 14 July, before retreating during the final sessions of the week.
The contract fell to a weekly settlement low of €79.12/t on Friday, 17 July. Despite the decline from the weekly high, the settlement remained only 0.1% below the previous Friday’s level, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.