In the third week of May, European electricity markets experienced strong volatility, with daily prices peaking on Monday, May 18, before gradually declining toward the end of the week. Despite this intra-week correction, weekly average prices increased in most markets, driven by higher gas prices, lower wind generation and intermittent demand effects. The Spanish, Portuguese and Nordic markets were the main exceptions, recording declines of 2.7%, 2.9% and 19%, respectively. In contrast, France posted the largest increase of 11%, while other markets saw rises ranging from 3.3% in Great Britain to 7.9% in Belgium.
During the week of May 18, most European markets recorded average prices above €75/MWh, reflecting persistently tight system conditions across the continent. Notable exceptions were Spain, Portugal and France, with relatively lower averages of €48.48/MWh, €48.53/MWh and €48.94/MWh, respectively. At the higher end, Italy and Great Britain recorded the most expensive markets, with weekly averages of €116.31/MWh and €123.33/MWh, while other markets ranged from €75.79/MWh in the Nordics to €105.42/MWh in Germany, highlighting significant regional divergence.
On a daily basis, extreme price dispersion was evident across Europe. On Sunday, May 24, several markets including Spain, France, the Nordics and Portugal fell below €30/MWh, with the Nordic market reaching a weekly low of just €8.40/MWh, its weakest level since early April. By contrast, several Central and Western European markets remained structurally tight, with Germany, Great Britain, Italy and the Netherlands frequently trading above €100/MWh throughout the week. The British market peaked on May 18 at €141.25/MWh, while Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands also reached their highest daily levels since early April, exceeding €130/MWh in each case.
The upward pressure on prices during the week was primarily driven by higher gas prices and weaker wind generation, with demand fluctuations adding additional support in selected markets. These fundamental factors reinforced bullish sentiment in most European hubs despite intermittent intraday corrections.
Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicates that prices could rise further in France, Spain, Italy and Portugal in the fourth week of May, supported by lower wind output and higher demand conditions. By contrast, Germany may see downward pressure on prices, driven by weaker demand alongside stronger wind and solar generation, although evolving gas price trends are expected to remain a key driver of overall European electricity market dynamics, AleaSoft reports.