Europe: Electricity prices surge across most markets amid higher demand, CO₂ costs and weaker wind output

In the third week of June, electricity prices increased across most European power markets, with weekly averages rising compared to the previous week in nearly all regions analyzed. The Nordic market was the only exception, recording a 12% price decline, while the strongest increases were observed in Spain (+83%), Portugal (+88%), and France (+217%). In the remaining markets covered by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, price growth ranged from +3.7% in Italy to +30% in Belgium, highlighting a broadly bullish regional price environment.

During the week of June 15, weekly average prices exceeded €80/MWh in most European markets. The Nordic market remained significantly lower at €54.28/MWh, while Italy recorded the highest weekly average at €127.69/MWh. Elsewhere, prices ranged from €83.13/MWh in France to €118.99/MWh in Great Britain, reflecting persistent regional divergence in supply-demand balances.

On a daily basis, the Nordic market saw very low weekend prices, falling below €25/MWh, with a weekly minimum of €18.12/MWh on June 21. In contrast, most other markets consistently remained above €55/MWh throughout the week, underscoring tighter conditions across continental Europe.

Several markets also experienced price spikes above €100/MWh, including Germany, Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, and the Netherlands. The Dutch market reached the weekly peak daily average at €143.63/MWh on June 18, while Belgium hit €141.93/MWh, its highest level since March 11. The Iberian markets also saw strong upward pressure, with Spain reaching €98.30/MWh on June 16 and Portugal €98.70/MWh on June 17, later climbing to €99.89/MWh on June 22, though still below March highs.

The price increase was driven by a combination of higher CO₂ allowance costs, stronger electricity demand, and reduced wind generation, which tightened supply conditions across Europe. Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting expects continued upward pressure on prices in the fourth week of June, supported by rising demand, lower wind output in Germany, weaker solar generation in Spain, and the influence of gas price movements on overall market direction, AleaSoft reports.

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