Day-ahead electricity prices rose sharply across Hungary and much of southeastern Europe on Tuesday as colder weather lifted consumption, renewable output weakened and imports from Austria and Slovakia declined.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price jumped €45.20 to €233.90/MWh, the highest among the monitored markets. Romania followed at €231.74/MWh, up €48.50, while Croatia and Slovenia rose by €69.40 and €75.30 respectively to €225.27/MWh and €223.46/MWh.
The increase coincided with a regional temperature decline of about 5 degrees Celsius and a 952 MW rise in forecast consumption to 29,382 MW. Expected solar production fell by 207 MW to 4,957 MW, while wind output declined by 213 MW to 2,266 MW.
The tightening was amplified by a sharp reduction in electricity arriving from Austria and Slovakia. Core imports into Hungary and the adjoining SEE markets fell by 1,425 MW to 1,502 MW. Total regional net imports declined by a more moderate 306 MW to 1,684 MW, partly because cross-border flows from Italy shifted by more than 1 GW from the previous day.
Germany also recorded a steep price increase, with its day-ahead contract rising €129.60 to €226.18/MWh. That nearly eliminated Hungary’s recent premium over the German market, narrowing the HU-DE spread to €7.73/MWh from €92.10/MWh a day earlier.
The eastern part of the SEE market remained expensive but traded below Hungary. Bulgaria settled at €211.73/MWh and Greece at €211.76/MWh, leaving both markets at discounts of about €22/MWh to HUPX. Romania’s discount was only €2.16/MWh, indicating tighter conditions in the coupled Hungarian-Romanian area.
Western Balkan prices were substantially lower. Serbia’s SEEPEX rose €30.10 to €177.82/MWh, but still traded at a discount of €56.08/MWh to Hungary. Albania reached €180.83/MWh, while Montenegro eased to €161.31/MWh and North Macedonia fell to €151.10/MWh, the lowest price in the monitored region.
The gap between Hungary and North Macedonia widened to almost €83/MWh, underlining continued fragmentation across the SEE market despite the general demand increase. Bulgaria remained a major regional exporter, while Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Croatia and Greece retained net-import positions.
Forward markets did not fully follow the day-ahead surge. Hungary’s week-40 contract fell €14 to €183.50/MWh, week 41 declined to €197/MWh, and October lost €10 to €198/MWh. The Hungarian calendar-2026 contract eased €4 to €149.50/MWh.
Fuel prices also weakened. Austrian CEGH gas fell €3.50 to €76.45/MWh, while Greek gas declined €2.90 to €57.14/MWh. The October and fourth-quarter gas contracts both dropped €6.50 to €74.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged down to €86.59 a tonne, and October coal slipped to $134.50 a tonne.
The combination of cheaper fuel and lower forward electricity prices suggests traders view Tuesday’s spot increase primarily as a short-term weather and cross-border supply shock. The immediate market risk remains concentrated in evening hours, when colder demand, reduced solar generation and restricted access to cheaper central European imports could again widen the premium for Hungary, Romania and the northern SEE markets.