Hungarian day-ahead electricity prices surged for delivery on Monday as weekday demand recovered and wind generation fell, creating a high-price Central European cluster and widening spreads with the southern Balkans.
The HUPX baseload price jumped €88.80/MWh from Sunday to €250.97/MWh, the highest in Southeast Europe and only €5.58/MWh below Germany’s €256.55/MWh.
Slovenia and Croatia closely followed the Central European market, settling at €246.31/MWh and €245.36/MWh, respectively. Austria traded at €246.98/MWh, while Romania was slightly lower at €237.61/MWh.
The increase was driven by a sharp tightening of the regional balance. Consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast to rise by 3.64 GW to 29.69 GW as markets returned from the weekend. Wind generation was expected to fall by 1.13 GW to 2.04 GW.
Forecast solar production increased by 778 MW to 5.95 GW, but the additional midday output was insufficient to compensate for stronger demand and weaker wind conditions, particularly after sunset.
The pressure was concentrated in the evening. HUPX reached €619.70/MWh in hour 20, compared with a daily minimum of €161.70/MWh. Germany peaked at €697.30/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia reached almost €600/MWh.
Romania recorded an evening maximum of €615.80/MWh, confirming that the scarcity event extended across the northern part of the region.
Further south, price increases were substantial but less pronounced. Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price rose €76.70/MWh to €199.44/MWh, leaving it €51.53/MWh below Hungary.
Albania traded at €204.75/MWh, Bulgaria at €193.13/MWh and Greece at €186.76/MWh. Montenegro and North Macedonia recorded the region’s lowest prices at €179.97/MWh and €179.60/MWh, both around €71/MWh below HUPX.
The divergence divided the market into three broad zones: Germany, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia and Croatia above €245/MWh; Italy and Romania between €226/MWh and €238/MWh; and most of the southern Balkans between €180/MWh and €205/MWh.
That separation pointed to binding cross-border constraints. Lower-priced generation in the Balkans could not move in sufficient volumes towards Hungary and the northern Adriatic markets to eliminate the spreads.
Romania exported an average 1.62 GW to Hungary, rising to 2.25 GW during peak hours, while simultaneously importing around 1.82 GW from Bulgaria. The flows reinforced Romania’s role as a transit market between cheaper Bulgarian supply and the tighter Hungarian system.
Serbia also switched to exports towards Hungary, averaging 233 MW over the day and 369 MW during peak hours. However, available capacity was not enough to close the more than €50/MWh SEEPEX-HUPX spread.
Serbian consumption was forecast at 3.33 GW, up by around 329 MW from Sunday. Generation recovered more strongly, increasing by about 819 MW to 3.05 GW, cutting net imports to 276 MW from 766 MW a day earlier.
Serbia continued to import from Bulgaria and North Macedonia while exporting north towards Hungary. Its peakload price reached €214.10/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €184.80/MWh, underlining the higher value of flexible capacity during the evening ramp.
Montenegro remained a modest net importer at 47 MW, with consumption of 361 MW and domestic generation of 314 MW. No scheduled commercial flow was recorded through the Montenegro-Italy interconnector, despite an Italian national price of €225.85/MWh, nearly €46/MWh above Montenegro.
Albania reduced net imports to 272 MW from 554 MW as domestic generation more than doubled to 566 MW, but its day-ahead price still rose by €58/MWh.
Fuel markets provided continued support to power prices. Austrian CEGH gas edged up to €81.95/MWh, while Greek gas remained at €63/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €85.52/tonne, keeping the cost of gas- and coal-fired generation elevated.
Hungarian forward prices nevertheless declined. Week 38 fell by €4/MWh to €179/MWh, Week 39 dropped to €184.50/MWh, and October eased to €196/MWh.
The forward decline suggests traders viewed Monday’s spot surge primarily as a short-term combination of lower wind, recovering demand and evening scarcity. But the October Hungarian premium of €33/MWh over Germany shows that congestion and regional supply risks remain firmly priced into the market.
For traders, the strongest signal was not simply the jump in outright prices but the return of wide north-south spreads. Electricity was available below €200/MWh across much of the southern Balkans while Hungary approached €251/MWh—a price gap whose value depended almost entirely on securing scarce cross-border capacity.