Serbia power jumps €34/MWh as Romania nuclear deficit tightens SEE market

Serbian day-ahead electricity prices rose by around €34/MWh for Sept. 1 delivery as stronger regional demand and the continued absence of Romanian nuclear generation tightened the Southeast European market.

Serbia’s SEEPEX market cleared at €166.25/MWh, up from roughly €132/MWh in the previous session.

Romania settled at €177.28/MWh, Hungary at €176.74/MWh, Bulgaria at €174.59/MWh and Greece at €174.68/MWh.

Montenegro remained cheaper at €158.50/MWh, while North Macedonia cleared at €148.46/MWh.

Regional demand increased by around 2.4 GW day on day to approximately 33.27 GW, lifting net imports across the monitored Southeast European markets to about 2.87 GW.

Romania alone required around 1.03 GW of net imports, with nuclear output at zero.

The Romanian shortfall has become one of the principal drivers of regional trading conditions.

Cernavodă normally provides a large block of low-carbon baseload supply.

Its absence increases Romania’s reliance on coal, gas, hydro, renewable generation and cross-border imports.

That demand can tighten Hungary and Bulgaria because both markets are important potential suppliers.

The strongest signal remains the hourly price curve.

Hungarian electricity reached around €276.50/MWh, while Romania climbed to approximately €283/MWh around the evening peak.

Those values reinforce the structural premium attached to electricity available after solar generation falls.

Daily baseload averages around €175/MWh conceal much weaker prices during renewable-heavy hours and significantly higher values after sunset.

That price shape is improving the economics of batteries, reservoir hydro and flexible gas generation.

It is also weakening the realised revenues of standalone solar projects that produce most heavily during lower-priced periods.

Serbia’s jump narrows the large discount to Hungary seen during previous sessions.

The country had traded more than €40/MWh below HUPX at the end of August despite remaining a net importer.

For Sept. 1, the differential narrowed to roughly €10.50/MWh.

That indicates a stronger transmission of Central European scarcity into SEEPEX as regional demand increased.

Forward markets are also reflecting continued tightness.

Hungarian Week 37 power was indicated around €175.50/MWh, while October traded near €181/MWh.

Those levels suggest traders do not expect the regional premium to disappear immediately.

Hydrology remains weak, Romania’s nuclear availability remains uncertain and evening demand will become more difficult to cover as solar production declines into autumn.

Additional wind output could soften prices on individual days, while recovery at nuclear plants including Kozloduy and Paks provides some support.

But the wider structure is unchanged.

Southeast Europe is adding large amounts of renewable capacity without yet adding an equivalent volume of flexible supply.

The Sept. 1 market therefore reinforces a pattern established during August: the region can move quickly between renewable-driven surplus and severe evening scarcity, leaving power prices highly sensitive to nuclear availability, hydrology and cross-border flows.

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