In the third week of June, Brent crude oil futures experienced a volatile but overall downward trend, with Front Month ICE contracts reaching their weekly peak settlement price of $83.17/bbl on June 15, despite already being 4.8% lower than the previous Friday. Prices then fell sharply, and on June 16 Brent dropped 5.1% in a single session, reaching the weekly minimum of $78.96/bbl, the lowest level since March 3. Although prices partially recovered toward the end of the week, Brent still closed at $80.57/bbl on June 19, remaining 7.7% below the previous week’s close.
The decline was driven by geopolitical and supply-side expectations, including progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as International Energy Agency projections indicating a potential global crude surplus by 2027. These factors kept Brent futures consistently below the $85/bbl threshold throughout the week, reinforcing a weaker sentiment in the oil market.
In parallel, TTF natural gas futures also moved lower across the week, reflecting similar bearish energy market dynamics. The Front Month ICE contract reached its weekly high of €42.51/MWh on June 15, already down 9.1% from the previous week’s close. Prices then declined further, hitting a weekly low of €40.52/MWh on June 18, the lowest level since April 21. By June 19, prices rebounded slightly to €42.09/MWh, but still ended the week 10% below the prior week’s level.
Overall, both oil and gas markets in the third week of June were characterized by weakening prices, intermittent volatility, and downward pressure from improving supply expectations and easing geopolitical risk premiums, AleaSoft reports.