During the fourth week of May, Brent crude oil futures (Front Month, ICE) remained below the $100/bbl threshold, showing a volatile but ultimately downward weekly trajectory. The highest settlement price was recorded on Tuesday, May 26, at $99.58/bbl, after which prices gradually weakened. By Friday, May 29, Brent futures fell to a weekly low of $92.05/bbl, representing an 11% decline compared to the previous Friday and marking the lowest level since April 18, according to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, market sentiment was influenced by expectations of progress toward a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. These expectations contributed to easing risk premiums and helped drive oil prices lower over the week.
In the European gas market, TTF natural gas futures (ICE, Front Month) also showed notable fluctuations. The weekly minimum was reached on Monday, May 25, at €45.43/MWh, followed by a 4.5% rebound the next day, when prices peaked at €47.47/MWh on Tuesday, May 26. For the rest of the week, prices remained relatively stable, staying below €47/MWh, before settling at €46.00/MWh on Friday. This represented a 5.5% decline compared to the previous Friday.
Price movements in gas markets were shaped by opposing forces. On one hand, expectations of a potential US–Iran agreement exerted downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, limited European storage levels and increased demand driven by higher temperatures prevented a sharper decline, keeping prices within a relatively tight range.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures (EEX, December 2026 contract) followed a different pattern. Prices reached their weekly low on Monday, May 25, at €76.77/t, before rising steadily throughout the week. By Friday, May 29, they peaked at €80.63/t, which represented a 4.8% increase compared to the previous Friday and the highest level since February 10.
Overall, while oil and gas markets experienced downward pressure due to easing geopolitical risk expectations and mixed demand signals, carbon prices moved in the opposite direction, supported by steady upward momentum throughout the week, AleaSoft reports.