During the fourth week of May, most major European electricity markets experienced an initial phase of price increases, followed by a gradual easing toward the end of the week. In many cases, even though early sessions were marked by upward pressure, prices retreated in later trading, resulting in lower weekly averages across the majority of markets.
Italy, Spain, Portugal and France were the main exceptions to this trend, recording weekly price increases of 6.2%, 25%, 25% and 27%, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, the Nordic market registered the most pronounced decline, with prices falling by 36%. In the remaining analyzed markets, declines ranged from 1.1% in Great Britain to 10% in Germany.
Weekly average prices in most European markets remained below €95/MWh during the period. The United Kingdom and Italy stood out with higher averages of €121.97/MWh and €123.58/MWh, respectively, while the Nordic region recorded the lowest level at €48.37/MWh. Elsewhere, prices generally ranged from €60.70/MWh in Spain and Portugal up to €94.90/MWh in Germany.
On a daily basis, several markets — including Spain, France, the Nordics and Portugal — recorded at least one session with prices below €35/MWh. The lowest daily average of the week was observed in the Nordic market on May 27, when prices dropped to €21.97/MWh.
In contrast, the British and Italian markets consistently remained above €100/MWh throughout the week. Additional high-price episodes were recorded in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands on May 28 and 29. The highest daily average was reached in Italy on May 27, at €134.53/MWh.
Price movements during the week were largely influenced by a combination of factors. Lower gas prices and stronger solar generation exerted downward pressure across many markets. In some regions, weaker demand and increased wind output, particularly in Germany, reinforced this bearish trend. However, reduced wind generation in France, Italy and the Iberian Peninsula, combined with higher electricity demand, contributed to upward pressure in those markets.
Looking ahead, price forecasts suggest that most major European markets may experience increases in the first week of June. This is expected to be driven by lower solar generation and, in some cases, higher demand. Nevertheless, France and Italy could see price declines due to weaker consumption and stronger wind production, with Italy additionally supported by higher solar output. Gas prices are expected to remain a key factor shaping European electricity market dynamics in the period ahead, AleaSoft reports.