During the first week of May, electricity prices increased across most major European power markets, even though daily prices declined toward the end of the week. Despite this late correction, weekly averages remained above the levels recorded on May 1 in most markets, leading to an overall upward shift in price levels compared to the previous week.
The smallest increases were observed in the Iberian markets, where Portugal rose by 4.9% and Spain by 6.6%. In contrast, France recorded the most extreme percentage increase at 494%, reflecting a sharp rebound from earlier low levels. In other analyzed markets by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, price growth ranged from 13% in the United Kingdom to 82% in Germany and the Nordic region, highlighting strong regional divergence.
Weekly average prices in the week of May 4 exceeded €100/MWh in most European markets. The exceptions were Portugal, Spain, and France, with averages of €58.88/MWh, €59.76/MWh, and €73.95/MWh, respectively. Italy recorded the highest weekly average at €131.47/MWh, while other markets ranged between €100.68/MWh in the Nordics and €119.45/MWh in the UK.
On the daily level, the Portuguese market registered the lowest price of the week among all analyzed markets at €19.57/MWh on May 10, a Sunday. On the same day, Spain and France also recorded very low prices below €25/MWh, at €20.84/MWh and €21.22/MWh, respectively. In contrast, most other markets remained consistently above €65/MWh throughout the week.
Several markets experienced sustained high-price conditions. Italy and the UK recorded daily prices above €100/MWh throughout the entire week, while Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands exceeded that level from Monday to Friday. France and the Nordic market also briefly crossed the €100/MWh threshold during select trading sessions.
The highest daily price of the week was recorded in Italy on May 6, reaching €146.46/MWh. On May 7, Portugal and Spain recorded their highest prices since mid-March, at €86.48/MWh and €86.90/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market also surged on the same day, reaching €134.03/MWh, its highest level since February.
The overall upward pressure on prices during the first week of May was driven by several key factors, including a rise in CO₂ emission allowance prices, lower wind energy output across most markets, and higher electricity demand. Additionally, solar generation declined in Germany and Italy, further tightening supply conditions. In contrast, stronger wind and solar production in the Iberian Peninsula helped limit price increases in Spain and Portugal.
Looking ahead, forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting suggest that electricity prices may decline in the second week of May, supported primarily by a recovery in wind generation across most European markets and a potential decrease in demand in selected regions. However, gas price fluctuations are expected to remain a key driver influencing overall market behavior, AleaSoft reports.