South-East Europe is increasingly shifting toward a structural daytime export model, driven by the rapid expansion of solar generation and declining domestic demand.
In week 16, the region recorded a net export position of +195 MW, a significant reversal from the -1,172 MW import position observed in the previous week. This represents a swing of approximately 1.37 GW, largely attributable to increased renewable output and reduced consumption.
Bulgaria and Romania led the export growth, with +870 MW and +232 MW respectively, while Greece also contributed significantly. In contrast, Serbia remained a net importer at -245 MW, reflecting its continued reliance on thermal generation and relatively lower renewable capacity.
The shift toward exports is most pronounced during midday hours, when solar generation peaks and domestic demand is at its lowest. During these periods, excess electricity is increasingly flowing toward Central Europe and Italy, reversing traditional import patterns.
However, this export model is highly time-dependent. During evening hours, when solar output declines, the region reverts to an import position, relying on external sources to meet demand. This creates a dual system dynamic, with exports dominating during the day and imports during the night.
The implications for market participants are significant. Generators must adapt to a more volatile price environment, while traders gain opportunities to arbitrage between markets and time periods. System operators face increasing challenges in managing flows and maintaining stability.
Looking forward, the expansion of renewable capacity is likely to reinforce this trend. Without corresponding investments in storage and flexible generation, the gap between daytime surplus and evening deficit is expected to widen, further entrenching the region’s role as a net exporter during solar hours.
This structural evolution marks a fundamental shift in the identity of SEE power markets, transforming them from import-dependent systems into dynamic participants in the broader European energy landscape.