Cross-border electricity flows in South-East Europe are increasingly reflecting structural changes in the regional power system, with recent data indicating a shift toward partial market coupling with Central Europe.
In week 16, the Hungary-Germany price spread narrowed sharply to €1.38/MWh, signalling near convergence between the two markets. This level of alignment has not been observed since August 2025 and is primarily driven by increased renewable generation within SEE rather than changes in interconnection capacity.
At the same time, imports from the CORE region declined to one of their lowest levels since early 2025, particularly during midday hours when solar output in SEE markets was at its peak. In several instances, flows reversed direction, with excess generation exported toward neighbouring regions.
However, this apparent coupling is not uniform. During evening peak hours, when demand rises and renewable output falls, SEE markets continue to rely on imports, leading to renewed price divergence. This results in a hybrid market structure, where coupling occurs intermittently rather than continuously.
Transmission constraints remain a key limiting factor. While improvements in cross-border capacity have been observed, they are insufficient to fully integrate SEE markets with the broader European system. Congestion during critical hours continues to influence price formation and flow patterns.
Flows toward Ukraine and Moldova remain a consistent feature, with exports continuing for the 29th consecutive week. These flows play a stabilising role, particularly during peak demand periods, by providing an additional outlet for excess generation and mitigating extreme price movements.
The evolving flow dynamics suggest that SEE markets are transitioning toward a more integrated system, but one that remains sensitive to both physical constraints and renewable variability. This creates opportunities for cross-border trading strategies, particularly those that can exploit intraday differences in supply and demand.