European natural gas futures declined in Week 15 as weaker demand fundamentals combined with slightly improved supply conditions, easing pressure on the market. The weekly move also reflects a broader shift from acute geopolitical stress toward a more balanced, though still structurally tight, pricing environment where levels remain well above pre-crisis norms.
Dutch TTF futures traded lower over the week, averaging €47.68/MWh, a decline of 6.2% week-on-week. Prices reached a weekly high of €53.25/MWh on 7 April, before steadily falling to a low of €43.64/MWh by 10 April. The correction was largely driven by weaker gas demand across Europe during the Orthodox Easter period, which reduced industrial and commercial consumption and eased short-term market tightness. Although geopolitical tensions linked to the US–Iran conflict continued to support a risk premium, particularly due to concerns over supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, this was outweighed by softer demand and relatively stable supply flows.
Market sentiment remained volatile during the week, with TTF futures settling lower on 10 April and recording their sharpest weekly decline since 2022. Prices hovered near €44/MWh, while intraday trading briefly reflected additional geopolitical headlines, including renewed tensions following failed diplomatic talks and heightened restrictions on maritime traffic in the region. Despite these developments, the actual impact on European gas pricing remained limited, as physical flows had already been heavily constrained earlier in the year, reducing the marginal effect of new disruptions.
At the same time, the European gas market is entering the summer injection season under structurally challenging conditions. Storage facilities have begun refilling at a pace of roughly 250 mcm/day, with around 0.6 bcm injected since the start of April, approximately 10% above the five-year average. However, this increase is occurring from a relatively low base, as overall storage levels remain about 30% below both working capacity and historical averages. This creates a fragile balance, particularly as weak seasonal price spreads limit the economic incentive for rapid replenishment.
Looking ahead, the market remains highly sensitive to both weather-driven demand shifts and geopolitical developments, while the EU’s storage targets will require significantly higher injection volumes in the coming months. Achieving the 90% storage goal would require roughly 10 bcm more injections than last year, underscoring the scale of the challenge. Overall, despite the recent price correction, the European gas market remains in a tight and risk-sensitive equilibrium, where short-term relief does not eliminate underlying structural constraints.