Renewable generation across Southeast Europe showed a marked shift in Week 12 (16–22 March), with a strong rebound in wind output offsetting weaker solar production, while hydro generation remained broadly stable at system level but diverged sharply across countries.
Total variable renewable output increased by 23.2% week on week, driven primarily by a surge in wind generation, which rose by 60.1% across the region.
Wind output more than doubled in several key markets, including Romania (+159.7%), Bulgaria (+269.3%) and Greece (+105.5%), while Italy (+110.9%) and Croatia (+63.1%) also recorded strong gains. Türkiye posted a more moderate increase of +29.5%, contributing to the overall regional expansion.
The increase in wind generation significantly altered the regional power balance, reducing reliance on thermal generation during high-output periods and contributing to intraday price pressure in several markets.
In contrast, solar generation declined across most SEE countries, falling by 14.5% week on week, reflecting weaker seasonal irradiance. Greece recorded the steepest drop at -37.9%, followed by Türkiye (-41.1%) and Romania (-29.9%), while Bulgaria saw a more moderate decline of -9.6%. Italy was the only major market to post an increase in solar output during the week.
The reduction in solar generation contributed to tighter system conditions during evening peak hours, increasing reliance on dispatchable sources and amplifying intraday volatility.
Hydropower generation across the region remained broadly unchanged overall, declining marginally by -0.04% week on week, although country-level performance varied significantly. Greece (-30.44%), Bulgaria (-24.23%) and Romania (-15.89%) recorded notable declines, reflecting weaker inflows, while Croatia (+248.47%) and Serbia (+107.04%) posted strong increases from lower bases. Italy also reported a rise of +15.89%, supporting regional supply.
The divergence in hydro output reinforced cross-border balancing dynamics, with Western Balkan systems providing additional flexibility while core EU markets faced tighter hydrological conditions.
No nuclear generation data was reported for the SEE region in the dataset, with nuclear influence limited to indirect imports from neighbouring markets.
The generation mix in Week 12 shifted towards wind-led renewable supply, with reduced solar contribution and stable hydro output. Market participants noted that while higher wind penetration exerted downward pressure on prices during certain periods, the broader pricing structure remained supported by elevated fuel costs, particularly gas, maintaining a firm baseline across SEE power markets.