Power and gas markets across Southeast Europe moved higher in the CW 12 to 22 March, with electricity prices strengthening across most hubs while gas benchmarks extended gains on mounting supply risks linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Day-ahead electricity prices in the SEE region rose broadly week on week, with Greece posting the strongest increase at +12.03%, followed by Croatia (+9.54%) and Hungary (+8.12%), as higher gas input costs fed through to marginal pricing. Romania, Serbia and Bulgaria recorded more moderate gains, pointing to a regionally synchronised tightening, while Italy remained structurally elevated at €149.04/MWh, up just over 1% on the week.
In contrast, Türkiye sharply decoupled from the regional trend, with prices collapsing by -45.71% to €23.57/MWh, reflecting weaker demand and stronger renewable output.
Across Southern Europe, most SEE markets cleared above €100/MWh, with Hungary reaching €121.93/MWh and Greece hovering around the €100/MWh mark. Serbia remained among the lowest-priced markets at €97.43/MWh, maintaining a relative discount within the regional stack.
Daily price profiles showed a consistent pattern, with peak levels typically observed on Friday, 20 March, and troughs midweek, reflecting shifting renewable output and demand cycles.
The divergence between Eastern and Western Europe widened further during the week. Central and Eastern European markets moved higher, supported by rising fuel costs and tighter system balances, while Western markets such as Spain, Portugal and France recorded sharp declines due to strong renewable generation offsetting thermal price drivers.
Electricity demand across the SEE region fell by -4.19% week on week, driven primarily by a steep -13.37% drop in Türkiye. In contrast, most Balkan markets recorded demand growth, including Greece (+7.19%), Bulgaria (+5.20%), Romania (+5.01%) and Serbia (+5.05%), reflecting colder weather conditions and resilient consumption patterns.
On the supply side, the generation mix shifted significantly. Wind output surged by +60.1% week on week, while solar generation declined by -14.5%, altering intraday price dynamics and increasing volatility. Thermal generation fell by -13.65%, with gas-fired output down -19.05%, as higher fuel costs and stronger renewable penetration reduced dispatch.
Hydropower output remained broadly stable overall, although country-level variations were pronounced, with declines in Greece, Bulgaria and Romania offset by strong increases in Serbia and Croatia.
Cross-border flows reflected tightening regional balances and active arbitrage. Italy remained the dominant import market with net imports of 1,205 GWh, while Hungary increased imports by +36.3%. Greece expanded its export position to -261 GWh, and Serbia reduced imports by -35.3%, indicating improved domestic balance conditions.
Gas markets moved firmly higher during the same period, with TTF front-month futures rising from €50.9/MWh at the start of the week to a peak of €61.9/MWh, before easing slightly to settle around €59/MWh, resulting in a weekly average of €55.6/MWh, up +9.2%.
The rally was driven by intensifying geopolitical risks following attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, including damage to LNG capacity in Qatar and disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global transit route. The loss of up to ~20% of global LNG supply flows introduced a significant risk premium into European gas markets.
European storage levels added to bullish sentiment, remaining below 30% on average, with some countries falling under 25%, raising concerns ahead of the upcoming injection season.
Despite the tightening supply outlook, demand-side adjustments were evident. European gas consumption has been running around 14% below seasonal norms since early March, equivalent to a reduction of approximately 2.5 bcm, partially offsetting the supply shock.
LNG flows into Southern Europe increased, with Greece reporting inflows of 962.64 GWh (+15.4%)and Italy recording 4,288.14 GWh (+22.4%), reinforcing their roles as key entry points for regional gas supply. Croatia, however, saw a decline of -9.2% in LNG inflows.
Global price spreads remained wide, with US Henry Hub trading at $2.97/MMBtu (~€11.28/MWh), significantly below European levels, while Asian JKM benchmarks stood at $19.99/MMBtu, underlining continued competition for LNG cargoes.
In power markets, the rise in gas prices continued to underpin wholesale electricity pricing across most SEE hubs, although the relationship showed signs of short-term decoupling due to strong renewable output and demand variability.
Market participants pointed to an increasingly complex pricing environment, where gas remains the dominant structural driver of power prices, but short-term movements are increasingly shaped by renewable generation, cross-border flows and weather-driven demand shifts.
With geopolitical risks unresolved and storage levels low, both gas and electricity markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with further upside risks dependent on LNG supply developments and regional demand responses.