Prices rose across Southeast Europe’s regional electricity markets in Week 42, but at sharply different rates, widening price spreads and increasing the commercial importance of cross-border capacity and congestion. Serbia, Hungary and Romania recorded the region’s highest prices, while Greece remained considerably cheaper. The data are courtesy of Virtu.Energy.
Serbia’s average price was €247.89/MWh, followed by Hungary at €246.87/MWh and Romania at €240.51/MWh. Bulgaria reached €235.89/MWh and Croatia €230.49/MWh. Greece’s average was €186.57/MWh.
The reported spread between the highest- and lowest-priced European SEE markets widened to €60.30/MWh, from €51.66/MWh the previous week. Greece traded at a discount of €53.94/MWh to Romania and €60.30/MWh to Hungary. The divergence was more significant than the general increase in average electricity prices.
Price differences and cross-border flows
In an interconnected market, wide price spreads indicate that available generation is not moving freely enough to eliminate differences between neighbouring zones. Physical congestion, available transmission capacity, generation patterns and national demand consequently become more important commercial variables.
Greece offered a clear example of the changing regional flow picture. Its relatively low price coincided with substantially stronger electricity exports, while Serbia and Hungary increased their net import requirements. Bulgaria, traditionally a major exporter into the region, saw its net export position almost disappear.
These conditions can create substantial value for holders of cross-border transmission rights and traders able to position supply between lower- and higher-priced markets. They also strengthen the investment case for interconnection. A €50-60/MWh spread does not mean a transmission project would capture the difference continuously, but repeated periods of structural divergence increase the economic value of transfer capacity by allowing lower-cost generation to reach constrained markets more effectively.
Storage follows a similar rationale. A battery connected in a high-priced market can capture intraday volatility without directly participating in cross-border trading. Larger storage projects may also reduce the effects of congestion by shifting electricity from lower-demand periods into system peaks.
Investment and procurement implications
Widening regional spreads create both opportunity and risk for renewable producers. A wind or solar plant in a lower-priced bidding zone may produce competitively priced electricity but earn lower merchant revenues than a comparable project in a structurally tighter market. Developers in high-priced zones, by contrast, may capture stronger revenues while facing greater balancing and grid-connection risks.
The Week 42 price structure points to a more complex investment environment than a single regional average would suggest. Serbia, Hungary and Romania formed a high-price cluster, while Bulgaria and Croatia were slightly cheaper but remained at elevated levels. Greece was a lower-priced southern market, supported by rising renewable and thermal output.
Italy, at €225.21/MWh, sat between those groups, while Türkiye remained structurally separate at €52.69/MWh. For utilities and industrial buyers, the fragmentation increases the value of geographical diversification in electricity procurement. Traders face greater importance for hourly flows, cross-border capacity and congestion forecasting.
For investors, location is becoming almost as important as generation technology in Southeast Europe. The next phase of renewable investment will depend not only on producing low-cost electricity, but also on where it enters the grid, what transmission capacity is available and whether storage or contractual structures can protect producers against persistent local price discounts.