Greece increased its role as one of Southeast Europe’s most competitive electricity markets in Week 42, as wind and gas-fired generation rose alongside exports. Its day-ahead price remained well below those in several northern Balkan markets, despite rising from the previous week.
The Greek day-ahead electricity price averaged €186.57/MWh, up 6.7% week on week. It was still substantially lower than prices in Serbia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia. Greece’s discount to Bulgaria widened to €49.32/MWh, while the gap with Hungary reached €60.30/MWh.
Wind and gas output lift available supply
Combined Greek wind and solar generation increased 11.9% to 640.88 GWh. Wind output jumped 83.5%, more than offsetting a 16.9% decline in solar generation. Thermal generation also rose sharply, increasing 26.14% to 437.23 GWh, primarily as gas-fired output climbed 26.56%.
The rise in thermal generation came even as renewable output strengthened, creating a larger pool of electricity for domestic consumption and exports. Hydropower was the weaker component, falling 33.97% to 30.22 GWh. That decline was not enough to outweigh stronger wind and thermal production.
The increase in supply was reflected in cross-border trade: Greek net electricity exports surged 143.88% to 198.49 GWh. Greece became a more significant source of electricity for surrounding markets at a time when several northern Balkan systems were tightening. The country has spent years expanding renewable generation while also strengthening its gas infrastructure and cross-border connectivity.
Exports connect generation to regional demand
Week 42 showed how those assets can work together commercially when weather conditions are favourable. High wind output reduced the effective cost of part of Greece’s electricity mix, while gas-fired units supplied additional dispatchable generation. Together, they enabled the country to meet domestic consumption and send more electricity to higher-priced neighbouring markets.
The week also illustrated why gas generation remains relevant in a power system with rapidly growing renewable output. Gas prices were exceptionally high, yet Greek gas-fired generation still increased substantially. Electricity-market conditions and export opportunities were sufficiently attractive to support dispatch despite the expensive fuel.
For regional traders, the figures reinforce Greece’s potential role as a southern supply hub connecting renewable generation, LNG-backed gas-fired capacity and Balkan electricity demand. The country’s position in regional trade also depends on transmission capacity and cross-border connectivity.
Transmission and storage shape investment considerations
For investors, the implications are more nuanced. Large additions of renewable generation can bring lower wholesale prices and periods of merchant-price compression. In a strongly interconnected market, however, surplus renewable electricity can increasingly be monetised through exports rather than remaining in the domestic market.
That makes transmission capacity central to the investment case, as are batteries. Storage can retain electricity during low-price renewable hours and release it during evening or regional peaks, potentially improving the value captured by renewable projects.
Week 42 did not establish a permanent structural advantage for Greece: weather, outages and transmission constraints can quickly reverse trade patterns. It did demonstrate a market configuration likely to become more frequent, with Greece producing large volumes of wind and solar electricity, dispatching flexible gas generation where required and exporting surplus power towards higher-priced Balkan markets. This combination could make the Greek market increasingly influential in shaping electricity flows across Southeast Europe.
The report was provided courtesy of Virtu.Energy.