Southeast European day-ahead power prices mostly declined on Friday as demand eased and solar generation recovered sharply. Romania, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Serbia nevertheless remained among Europe’s more expensive electricity markets, with the region still reliant on imports. Prices rose in Greece, Italy and Montenegro despite the broader retreat.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price fell €29.1/MWh to €234.07/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX price dropped €18.4/MWh to €242.27/MWh. Romania was the highest-priced major market in the region at €250.35/MWh, followed by Montenegro at €246.60/MWh and Bulgaria at €245.91/MWh. Slovenia declined €13.7/MWh to €214.92/MWh, Croatia lost €13.2/MWh to €220.86/MWh, and North Macedonia fell €16.7/MWh to €232.80/MWh.
Greece’s day-ahead price increased €24.5/MWh to €225.80/MWh, Italy gained €15.1/MWh to €240.44/MWh, and Montenegro rose €7.7/MWh. Germany was considerably cheaper at €137.59/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €96.49/MWh premium despite its price decline. That spread narrowed by around €18/MWh from Thursday but continued to reflect congestion and the value of north-to-south transmission capacity.
Solar recovery reshapes hourly prices
Regional solar output was forecast at about 5.15 GW, more than 2 GW higher day on day, making it the main downward influence on spot prices. Wind generation, by contrast, fell almost 2.8 GW to around 795 MW. Forecast regional consumption declined about 1.26 GW from Thursday to 31.31 GW.
The change in generation mix produced a more pronounced intraday price pattern. HUPX baseload averaged €234.1/MWh, while its hourly price fell to a minimum of €86.7/MWh during the solar-heavy middle of the day before reaching a maximum of €314.5/MWh. Hungarian peak power averaged €192.2/MWh, well below the €276/MWh off-peak average, as solar output suppressed conventional daytime peak prices and scarcity shifted towards morning and evening hours.
Greek peak power averaged €197/MWh, against €254.6/MWh off-peak. The HEnEx minimum recovered to €90/MWh after falling close to zero in the previous session. The widening difference between solar hours and evening periods is becoming an increasingly important trading signal for batteries, flexible generation and industrial consumers.
Import deficits persist across Southeast Europe
Despite lower spot prices, Southeast Europe remained structurally short of electricity. Forecast net imports across Hungary and SEE were about 3.62 GW, down 872 MW from Thursday, while imports from the Austrian and Slovak direction remained around 4.21 GW. At the same time, the region shifted to net exports of about 519 MW towards Italy, with electricity moving across several interconnected price zones rather than only from western Europe into a single SEE deficit area.
Romania had one of the largest deficits: forecast consumption of about 6.30 GW exceeded generation of around 4.66 GW, leaving average imports near 1.63 GW. Hungary’s consumption was roughly 4.23 GW, against domestic generation of around 3.13 GW and imports of approximately 1.10 GW. Croatia was also a large importer, with a deficit of around 863 MW.
In Serbia, forecast demand of around 4.01 GW compared with generation of roughly 3.20 GW, producing an average import requirement of about 809 MW. That deficit helped keep SEEPEX at €242.27/MWh even after a fall of almost €20/MWh from the previous session. Serbia traded roughly €8/MWh above Hungary and more than €100/MWh above Germany, underscoring the importance of cross-border capacity, domestic generation availability and balancing requirements for its wholesale prices.
Greece moved in the opposite direction. Generation of around 6.47 GW exceeded consumption of approximately 5.24 GW, leaving exports of roughly 1.23 GW. The contrast with deficit markets remained visible even as Greek day-ahead prices rose.
Hungary links western imports with eastern flows
Cross-border flows showed Hungary acting as both an importing market and a transit hub. It imported heavily from Slovakia and Austria while sending large volumes eastwards towards Romania. Commercial Hungary-to-Romania flows reached around 1.58 GW on a baseload basis.
Hungary’s imports from cheaper western and central European markets, alongside exports towards higher-priced eastern markets, placed it at the centre of regional trading flows. The Germany-Hungary price spread remained an important signal for SEE electricity traders. Even with several gigawatts moving towards the region, available transmission capacity was insufficient to eliminate that price difference.
Forward power and fuel prices strengthen
Forward power prices remained firmer than Friday’s spot correction. Hungarian Week 44 power increased to €265.50/MWh, Week 45 rose to €271.50/MWh, and November climbed to €255.50/MWh. The November Hungary-Germany forward spread was around €57.50/MWh, while the Week 44 spread remained close to €90/MWh.
Fuel and carbon prices also strengthened. Austrian CEGH gas rose to €91.77/MWh, Greek gas to €81.56/MWh, and EU carbon allowances to €86.47/tCO₂. November gas traded around €91.50/MWh, while November coal stood near $151 a tonne.
The Friday session combined weaker day-ahead power with stronger forward contracts. Lower demand and higher solar output eased spot prices, but Southeast Europe still relied on several gigawatts of imports, and the Germany-Hungary differential remained exceptionally wide. Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria and Montenegro continued to trade at substantial premiums to western Europe.
Price variation within the day was also becoming more prominent than a single daily high or low. Solar production compressed midday prices, while declining renewable output towards evening again exposed the region to gas, coal, imports and transmission constraints. For traders, generators and storage investors, the widening hourly spread was becoming a defining feature of the Southeast European power market.