Southeast European day-ahead power markets diverged sharply on Thursday, October 22, as prices in Hungary and Serbia climbed above €260/MWh amid stronger demand and a widening regional supply deficit. Prices fell in Greece, Albania, Montenegro and much of the western Balkans. Rising imports and cross-border constraints shaped the market moves.
Day-ahead prices split across the region
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price rose €10.8 to €263.21/MWh, the highest among the markets covered. Serbia’s SEEPEX increased €49.2 to €260.63/MWh, almost closing the price gap between the two countries. Romania’s OPCOM reached €251.53/MWh, up €5.4, while Bulgaria’s IBEX rose €5.0 to €250.17/MWh.
North Macedonia settled at €249.48/MWh, while Montenegro, Croatia, Albania and Slovenia were priced between roughly €229/MWh and €239/MWh. Greece moved lower, with HENEX down €39.3 to €201.29/MWh, leaving a €61.92/MWh discount to Hungary. Germany’s price fell to €148.61/MWh, putting Hungary at a €114.60/MWh premium to the German market.
The price divergence increasingly reflected physical power balances and cross-border constraints rather than fuel prices. Combined electricity consumption in Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast at 32,624 MW, up 1,256 MW, or about 4%, from Wednesday. Regional net imports rose by 1,296 MW to 4,713 MW, covering roughly 14% of total consumption.
Imports from the Austrian-Slovak core into Hungary and Southeast Europe increased by 964 MW to 4,410 MW. Flows from Italy into the region rose by 283 MW to 383 MW. Solar generation was forecast to decrease by 571 MW to 3,735 MW, while wind generation was expected to increase by 409 MW to 3,100 MW.
Total regional generation was broadly stable at around 27.9 GW, against demand of more than 32.6 GW, leaving the system increasingly dependent on external supply. The previous day’s generation mix had already relied heavily on coal and gas, while hydro output had fallen by more than 600 MW. Stronger demand, lower solar availability and limited additional domestic generation supported prices in the northern and central Balkans even as German prices fell.
Hungary and Serbia face import pressure
Hungary remained at the centre of the regional imbalance. Consumption rose to 5,235 MW, while domestic generation was around 2,536 MW, leaving average net imports at approximately 2,699 MW. Imports therefore covered more than half of Hungarian electricity demand.
Average commercial flows showed about 1,307 MW moving from Austria into Hungary and 1,822 MW from Slovakia into Hungary. Hungary was also exporting around 614 MW to Romania and 526 MW to Croatia. Average flows from Serbia to Hungary were approximately 642 MW.
The Hungary-Germany spread widened to €114.60/MWh despite large imports from Central Europe. Available interconnection capacity was being heavily used but was not sufficient to remove the scarcity premium in Hungary and neighbouring markets. Germany’s day-ahead price fell by more than €63/MWh while Hungary’s rose.
Serbia recorded one of the day’s largest price increases. SEEPEX climbed from €211.4/MWh to €260.63/MWh, a rise of more than 23%, leaving the market just €2.58/MWh below HUPX. Serbian peak power averaged €281.9/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €239.4/MWh, and the maximum hourly price reached €343.4/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer despite relatively strong domestic generation. Consumption was forecast at about 3,928 MW against generation of approximately 3,220 MW, leaving a net deficit of close to 708 MW. Power flowed into Serbia from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro, while significant volumes moved north from Serbia into Hungary.
Average commercial exports from Serbia to Hungary reached about 642 MW. Bulgaria supplied Serbia with roughly 338 MW and Bosnia with around 345 MW. Serbia was therefore both a deficit market and a transit route for Balkan supply moving towards the higher-priced Hungarian market.
Southern and western markets ease
Greece provided the clearest counterweight to tight conditions in Hungary. Consumption was broadly unchanged at about 5,282 MW, while generation was forecast at around 6,441 MW, leaving approximately 1,159 MW of net exports. The surplus pushed HENEX day-ahead baseload to €201.29/MWh.
Greek hourly prices ranged from a minimum of €1/MWh to a maximum of €290/MWh. The very low afternoon price was consistent with a solar-driven midday surplus, followed by tighter evening conditions. The Greek-Hungarian price differential widened to almost €62/MWh, although transmission constraints across the Balkans limited how much lower-priced southern electricity could reach higher-priced Central European markets.
Montenegro’s BELEN price fell €15.3 to €238.93/MWh, more than €24/MWh below Hungary. Peak prices averaged €258.5/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €219.3/MWh. Montenegro’s system was close to balanced, with consumption around 340 MW, generation near 311 MW and net imports of about 28 MW.
Montenegro continued to serve as a cross-border transit route. Average flows towards Serbia were around 174 MW, while the Montenegro-Italy link carried flows predominantly towards Montenegro during the day. Croatia’s price fell to €234.06/MWh and Slovenia’s to €228.63/MWh; Albania recorded one of the day’s largest declines, dropping €51.6 to €233.99/MWh.
The western Balkan markets consequently traded well below Serbia and Hungary, despite continued import dependence in several individual systems. More broadly, insufficient cross-border transmission capacity prevented full price convergence even where cheaper electricity was available relatively close by.
Fuel prices and forward contracts
Spot gas did not move in line with the electricity price increase. CEGH Austrian gas fell €1.2 to €89.63/MWh, while the Greek gas indicator declined €4.6 to €79.19/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged up €0.3 to €85.91/tonne.
Forward electricity prices continued to reflect Hungarian tightness. Hungarian Week 44 and Week 45 power were both quoted at around €263/MWh, while November rose €6 to €250/MWh. The Hungarian calendar contract increased to €170.50/MWh.
Price spreads highlight transmission constraints
On October 22, Germany was below €150/MWh, Greece was around €201/MWh and Italy around €225/MWh, while Hungary and Serbia were near €260/MWh. Central European imports into Hungary and Southeast Europe were already above 4.4 GW. The combination increased the value of flexibility and cross-border capacity, with batteries, dispatchable generation, hydro flexibility and transmission rights gaining value when neighbouring markets differed by €50-€115/MWh during the same delivery day.
The common ADEX intraday continuous trading environment for Slovenia, Hungary and Serbia launched this week, with the stated aim of improving operational trading and short-term balancing between the three markets. Improved trading infrastructure cannot by itself remove physical grid constraints. The October 22 session also showed how greater market integration makes price signals more visible while exposing the limited transmission capacity available to arbitrage them.
Until additional interconnection, storage and flexible generation are available, periods of high regional demand are likely to continue producing large, commercially important spreads between Central Europe and the Balkans.