SEE power markets moved sharply higher in Week 19, with the regional price structure shifting back above €100/MWh in almost all markets except Türkiye. The move was driven by a classic tightening combination: lower wind generation, higher demand, stronger thermal dispatch and elevated CO₂/gas risk premiums linked to geopolitical stress around the Strait of Hormuz.
Italy remained the highest-priced SEE market at €131.47/MWh, followed by Romania at €123.34/MWh, Hungary at €122.62/MWh, Croatia at €117.37/MWh, Bulgaria at €111.41/MWh, Serbia at €111.36/MWh and Greece at €106.30/MWh. Serbia’s weekly price increased by 29.25%, but the stronger regional moves came from Hungary, Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania, showing that Central European tightness spilled directly into the SEE price stack. Türkiye stayed structurally detached at €16.14/MWh, despite a very large percentage increase.
Demand rose 4.34% week-on-week to 15,191 GWh, led by Italy and Türkiye. Italy added 416.3 GWh and Türkiye 253.6 GWh, while Serbia’s demand fell 3.12%, which partly explains why Serbia’s price increase was less aggressive than in neighbouring markets.
The decisive driver was the renewable shortfall. Variable RES output fell 19.0% to 2,808.6 GWh, with wind down 32.9%. Türkiye alone lost more than 420 GWh of wind generation, while Croatia and Greece also saw sharp declines. Solar was more stable, falling only 6.0%, but the drop was enough to raise residual demand for thermal units across the region.
Thermal generation responded strongly, rising 39.2% to 4,835.9 GWh. Gas-fired generation surged 66.6%, while coal and lignite increased 11.1%. This is the central market signal of the week: SEE prices were not only demand-led, but increasingly gas-dispatch-led. Italy and Türkiye carried most of the increase, while Greece and Hungary also relied more heavily on gas. Serbia moved differently, with lower thermal generation and a sharp fall in gas-fired output, but still imported more electricity.
Cross-border trade showed moderate tightening. Net SEE imports declined 4.6% to 1,036.6 GWh, but Serbia’s import balance more than doubled, while Romania’s net imports surged 216.0%. Greece and Bulgaria strengthened export positions, supported by conventional generation and regional spreads.
Gas was less directional but still risk-loaded. TTF futures averaged €45.34/MWh, almost flat week-on-week, but the market remained exposed to Middle East risk, LNG routing uncertainty and slower EU storage injections. EU gas injections have been running around 20% below last year, with inventories around 25% below the five-year average, leaving storage refill risk as a major forward-price support factor.
For trading desks, the week confirms that SEE is moving into a more volatile early-summer pattern: weak wind can quickly lift prices above €100/MWh, gas remains the marginal driver, and Serbia’s position is sensitive to imports even when domestic demand falls. For generators, the price signal improved materially; for suppliers and industrial buyers, the week reinforced the value of hedge coverage before summer cooling demand and gas-storage risk become more visible.