Southeast Europe entered the second week of June with a market pattern that is likely to become increasingly familiar throughout the summer. While regional electricity demand continued to rise, wholesale power prices moved lower as renewable generation expanded faster than consumption. Total electricity demand across the region reached 15.85 TWh in Week 24, representing an increase of 692.9 GWh, or 4.6%, compared to the previous week. Despite stronger consumption driven by warmer temperatures and higher cooling needs, most day-ahead electricity markets recorded lower average prices.
The price correction was widespread across the region. Serbia posted the largest weekly decline, with the average day-ahead price falling 21.5% to €78.22/MWh. Other markets also moved lower, including Bulgaria (-7.2%), Croatia (-7.3%), Romania (-4.7%), Hungary (-4.3%), and Italy (-3.8%). Greece stood out as the only major market to record an increase, with prices rising 2.6% to €91.53/MWh, while Italy maintained its position as the region’s premium market at €123.17/MWh.
The main driver behind lower prices was the continued growth of renewable energy production. Variable renewable generation climbed to 3.64 TWh, an increase of 518.6 GWh, or 16.6% week on week. Wind generation rose by 308.4 GWh to 1.40 TWh, while solar output increased by 210.2 GWh to 2.23 TWh. This additional renewable supply proved sufficient to offset the price pressure that would normally accompany stronger seasonal demand and rising temperatures.
Hydropower, however, moved in the opposite direction and emerged as the weakest segment of the generation mix. Regional hydro production declined by 300.2 GWh, or 7.5%, to 3.70 TWh, creating a larger role for conventional generation in balancing the system. As a result, thermal power output increased by 362.6 GWh, or 8.7%, reaching 4.52 TWh. Coal and lignite generation recorded the strongest increase, rising 24.4% to 2.14 TWh as operators compensated for reduced hydro availability.
The market signal from Week 24 is therefore more nuanced than a simple bearish price story. Although wholesale prices softened, the underlying generation structure became more dependent on thermal balancing resources as hydropower weakened. For traders, utilities, and industrial buyers, this points to a potentially more volatile summer market. Strong solar and wind production can continue to suppress daytime prices, but tighter hydro conditions and elevated evening demand may keep thermal generation close to the margin, preserving upside price risks despite growing renewable penetration.