Power prices across South East Europe moved in divergent directions on Tuesday, with Serbia posting the strongest day-on-day gain while most neighbouring markets softened under the weight of solid renewable output and easing regional balances.
Day-ahead baseload on the Hungarian HUPX edged down to €103.26/MWh (-1.5 €/MWh), while Romania’s OPCOM dropped more sharply to €84.99/MWh (-8.4 €/MWh) and Bulgaria’s IBEX fell to €76.13/MWh (-4.5 €/MWh). Greece followed the same trend at €75.66/MWh (-4.4 €/MWh), pointing to a broadly softer south-eastern pricing zone.
In contrast, Serbia’s SEEPEX jumped to €96.75/MWh (+14.3 €/MWh), marking the largest increase in the region, while Croatia’s CROPEX rose modestly to €100.32/MWh (+1.9 €/MWh).
The divergence highlights a widening split between Central European-linked markets trading around €100/MWh and south-eastern hubs clustered closer to €75–85/MWh, with Serbia emerging as a local outlier on tightening fundamentals.
Rising consumption across the SEE region provided upward pressure on prices despite strong generation. Total demand reached 28,328 MW, up 1,058 MW day on day, signalling a firm underlying load profile not directly driven by weather conditions.
At the same time, generation increased significantly to 27,624 MW (+3,014 MW), led by higher hydro and solar output. Hydropower climbed to 6,252 MW (+1,001 MW), while solar reached 5,174 MW (+557 MW), reinforcing the growing role of renewables in shaping intraday price dynamics.
However, stronger renewable production failed to fully suppress prices, particularly in tighter markets such as Serbia, where balancing requirements and import constraints appear to have played a more decisive role.
Cross-border flows intensified, with total net imports rising to 173 MW (+526 MW) and core inflows from Austria and Slovakia into the region surging to 1,951 MW (+1,242 MW).
The widening Hungary–Germany spread to €32.6/MWh (+26 €/MWh) underscored continued price tension between Western and Central European markets, encouraging higher import flows into the SEE region while exposing internal transmission bottlenecks.
Intraday volatility remained elevated, particularly in Hungary, where prices ranged from deeply negative levels to strong evening peaks. Day-ahead data showed minimum prices falling as low as -€500/MWh, while peak hours exceeded €275/MWh, reflecting oversupply during solar hours followed by tighter evening conditions.
Similar volatility patterns were observed across Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria, confirming that the region is increasingly exposed to renewable-driven price swings rather than fuel-cost fundamentals.
On the fuels side, gas and carbon markets provided limited directional support. Austrian CEGH gas prices hovered around €46/MWh (+0.9 €/MWh), while EU carbon allowances eased slightly, suggesting that marginal power pricing is now being driven more by system balance than input costs.
Market participants pointed to a growing structural shift in SEE power markets, where intermittent generation, cross-border congestion and balancing needs are overtaking traditional thermal price-setting mechanisms.
This trend is further supported by continued investment in flexibility assets across the region. Recent developments include new battery storage capacity in Hungary and a 52 MW storage project acquisition in Romania, reflecting a broader move toward capturing value from volatility rather than baseload generation.
Outlook for the coming days suggests continued price dispersion, with renewable output and cross-border flows expected to remain the primary drivers, while structurally tighter markets such as Serbia and Croatia may continue to trade at a premium during periods of constrained imports or elevated demand.