SEE power markets enter summer with higher load but weaker price signals

Southeast Europe entered the summer demand season with a notable combination of rising electricity consumption and broadly declining average power prices across most markets. Regional demand reached 15.85 TWh in Week 24, increasing by 4.6% week-on-week, yet price dynamics moved in the opposite direction.

The strongest demand growth was recorded in Italy and Türkiye. Italy added 319.8 GWh, lifting consumption by 6.7% to 5.12 TWh, while Türkiye increased by 246.7 GWh, rising 3.8% to 6.74 TWh. Greece also saw a solid expansion of 5.8% to 1.01 TWh. More moderate increases were observed across Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary, all contributing to a generally higher regional load profile.

Despite this demand uptick, prices softened across most markets due to a significant rise in renewable generation. Regional wind and solar output climbed to 3.64 TWh, up 16.6% week-on-week. Solar generation reached 2.23 TWh, while wind production increased to 1.40 TWh, improving overall supply conditions during a period of higher consumption.

This stronger renewable contribution had a clear impact on price formation. Serbia recorded the steepest decline, falling 21.5% to €78.22/MWh, followed by Bulgaria (-7.2% to €93.58/MWh), Croatia (-7.3% to €92.02/MWh), Romania (-4.7% to €97.38/MWh), Hungary (-4.3% to €98.71/MWh) and Italy (-3.8% to €123.17/MWh). Greece was the only outlier, rising 2.6% to €91.53/MWh despite the broader regional downtrend.

Overall, the week highlights a clear summer pattern emerging in SEE power markets. While rising temperatures support higher electricity demand, expanding solar and wind output is increasingly absorbing daytime load and suppressing average prices. However, the evening demand curve, hydropower variability, and thermal dispatch remain the key determinants of system balancing costs. Week 24 was therefore not a period of weak demand, but rather a clear reflection of a stronger renewable-driven supply environment reshaping price formation across the region.

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