The Week 24 electricity balance in Southeast Europe reflected a dual-structure market, where rapidly expanding renewable generation suppressed prices during rising demand, while thermal plants compensated for reduced hydropower output.
Wind and solar production increased strongly across the region. Variable renewable generation rose by 16.6% to 3.64 TWh, with wind up 28.1% to 1.40 TWh and solar increasing by 10.4% to 2.23 TWh. This surge in output helped cap day-ahead prices in most SEE markets, even as electricity consumption climbed by 4.6% to 15.85 TWh.
At the same time, hydropower generation moved lower. Regional hydro output declined by 7.5% to 3.70 TWh, driven primarily by Türkiye’s 229 GWh reduction and Bulgaria’s 42.9 GWh drop. This decline is particularly important for system flexibility, as hydropower typically provides fast-response capacity needed to balance intraday and evening demand fluctuations.
Thermal generation stepped in to cover the shortfall. Total thermal output rose by 8.7% to 4.52 TWh, with coal and lignite increasing sharply by 24.4% to 2.14 TWh. In contrast, gas-fired generation fell by 2.4%, indicating that coal and lignite bore most of the balancing responsibility. Türkiye, Italy and Serbia were the main contributors to the increase in coal-based generation.
This dynamic highlights a key structural feature of the region’s power system. While renewables are increasingly influential in shaping price levels, they are not yet sufficient to replace dispatchable capacity. When hydropower weakens, coal and lignite can still quickly re-enter the marginal stack, particularly in Türkiye, Serbia and parts of the Balkans.
The price outcomes reflect this mixed balance. Serbia recorded the largest decline, falling to €78.22/MWh, followed by Bulgaria at €93.58/MWh and Croatia at €92.02/MWh. Italy remained significantly higher at €123.17/MWh, supported by stronger demand and continued reliance on imports. Overall, Week 24 shows a market where prices are increasingly shaped by renewables, but system security still depends on thermal generation when hydro conditions weaken.