Today’s 23/3/26, SEE and Hungary power market opens with a broad-based price spike, but the regional pattern is not uniform. Hungary is again the premium market at €159.38/MWh, with Romania at €155.42/MWh, Bulgaria at €151.00/MWh, Greece at €147.74/MWh, Slovenia at €154.95/MWhand Croatia at €154.81/MWh. Serbia is notably lower at €137.52/MWh, while Albania stands at €134.17/MWh, North Macedonia at €131.02/MWh and Montenegro at €124.54/MWh. That means the region is trading in a high-price regime, but the southern non-EU markets remain materially discounted to the HUPX-led core.
The main driver is a sharp day-on-day price jump across the whole region rather than a single local dislocation. HUPX rose by €65.9/MWh versus the previous day, Romania by €65.3/MWh, Bulgaria by €60.9/MWh, Greece by €63.0/MWh, Slovenia by €60.5/MWh, Croatia by €61.1/MWh, and Serbia by €52.5/MWh. In other words, this is a synchronized bullish move, consistent with tighter regional fundamentals rather than isolated congestion. The fact that Serbia rose strongly but still remained around €21.86/MWh below Hungary shows that the country is participating in the rally without fully converging with the central pricing hub.
Fundamentally, the region is carrying a much tighter balance today. Forecast consumption for SEE plus Hungary is 34,235 MW, up 3,093 MW day on day, while total generation slipped to 32,049 MW, down 2,410 MW. That combination alone explains much of the price strength: demand is rising hard into Monday, while domestic supply is falling. Net imports are still negative at -462 MW, which means the region remains a net exporter overall, but that export position has narrowed materially from the previous day, indicating reduced system comfort.
The most important supply-side weakness is renewables, especially wind. Forecast wind is 2,951 MW, down 852 MW from the previous day on the front-page table, while the generation breakdown page shows total wind at 3,803 MW, down 1,000 MW day on day. Hydro is also weaker, falling to 5,870 MW, down 741 MW. Solar is not helping enough either, with generation at 2,986 MW, down 185 MWin the balance table, even though the forecast front page still shows a substantial solar contribution of 3,540 MW. In short, Monday demand is returning just as hydro and wind lose momentum, forcing the market to lean harder on thermal plant and imports.
Thermal generation is filling part of that gap, but not enough to prevent the price surge. Coal output stands at 7,229 MW and gas at 5,017 MW, while nuclear remains stable at 5,839 MW. The mix therefore shows the market relying on baseload thermal and nuclear to anchor the system, with variable renewables losing influence versus Sunday. That is why spreads to the lower-priced Balkan exchanges are still visible: Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia are cheaper, but the entire curve has been dragged upward by the regional scarcity signal.
Cross-border positioning also matters. The region is importing 1,592 MW from the core direction, with that flow up 339 MW day on day, while the HU-DE day-ahead spread widened to €17.46/MWh. A positive Hungary-Germany spread of that size generally supports imports from the northwest into Hungary and then further into SEE where transmission allows it. Yet the fact that prices are still so high despite heavier core inflows shows that import capability is cushioning the rally, not eliminating it. Italy remains the structurally expensive external reference at €165.24/MWh, while Austria is at €156.03/MWh and Germany at €141.91/MWh, reinforcing the idea that SEE is being pulled upward by broader continental firmness rather than purely domestic constraints.
For Serbia specifically, SEEPEX at €137.52/MWh looks relatively resilient rather than weak. It is clearly below Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia, which suggests Serbia still benefits from a somewhat softer local balance or more limited convergence to the high-priced core. But the absolute level is still elevated, and the day-on-day move of +€52.5/MWh is large enough to show that Serbia is not insulated from the regional squeeze. Montenegro at €124.54/MWh remains the lowest-priced market in the dataset, which fits a looser local balance, but the differential versus Serbia is still only around €13/MWh, not enough to imply a fundamentally different market regime.
The intraday structure also points to an evening-led tightness pattern rather than an all-day scarcity event. On the country price-profile pages, daily maxima across HUPX, OPCOM, BSP, IBEX, CROPEX, Austria and SEEPEX cluster around hour 19 or 20, while minima tend to sit around hour 13, consistent with midday solar relief followed by steep evening repricing once solar fades. In Serbia, the maximum price is €225/MWh and the minimum is €80/MWh; in Hungary the maximum reaches €274.1/MWhwith a minimum of €82.7/MWh. That spread between midday and evening confirms that flexibility remains the scarce commodity in the region.
The forward and fuel backdrop is supportive but not the immediate trigger. CEGH gas is at €61.43/MWh, Greece gas at €56.43/MWh, and EUA at €67.66/t, while Hungarian week and month forward power products remain elevated. Coal forwards are also high. Those inputs help keep the marginal thermal cost base firm, but today’s day-ahead jump looks more directly linked to the combination of stronger Monday load, weaker hydro, weaker wind and heavier reliance on imports.
The trading conclusion for today is straightforward: the SEE market is in a bullish start-of-week reset, driven by tighter physical balance and weaker renewable support. Hungary remains the regional price leader, Romania-Bulgaria-Croatia-Slovenia are trading in the upper band, and Serbia is discounting to the core but still pricing a tight system. Unless wind or hydro recover faster than forecast, the region is likely to stay structurally firm through the evening peak, with cross-border spreads continuing to reflect the divide between the core-imported markets and the lower-priced southern Balkan exchanges.