South-East European power markets opened April 8 with a clear regional divergence, as Serbia and Hungary decoupled from a softer Balkan pricing cluster, supported by localized tightness and reduced cross-border inflows, while Romania, Bulgaria and Greece tracked lower on improved renewable output and easing system balance.
Day-ahead prices reflected a fragmented market structure rather than a uniform directional move. Hungary’s HUPX cleared at 94.42 €/MWh, up 3.1 €/MWh day on day, while Serbia’s SEEPEX jumped to 97.39 €/MWh, gaining 7.0 €/MWh, making it the strongest-performing market in the region. In contrast, Romania (80.63 €/MWh), Bulgaria (80.41 €/MWh) and Greece (80.41 €/MWh)all posted declines between 4–7 €/MWh, consolidating a lower-priced southeastern block.
Italy remained structurally elevated at 127.98 €/MWh, continuing to anchor the upper bound of regional spreads, though without directly pulling up the Balkan complex.
The divergence comes despite a broadly improved regional supply picture. Total consumption across the SEE + Hungary system rose to 31,058 MW, an increase of 1,626 MW, but generation expanded more sharply, reaching 28,571 MW, up 2,148 MW. The increase was driven primarily by solar (+728 MW to 4,997 MW), hydro (+608 MW to 7,459 MW) and gas (+630 MW to 3,116 MW), offsetting a decline in coal output.
As a result, the region shifted from a net import position to near balance. Net imports dropped to -160 MW, a sharp improvement of 1,021 MW day on day, indicating that the system required significantly less external supply.
However, the key driver behind price strength in Hungary and Serbia was not absolute scarcity, but changes in cross-border flow dynamics. Core imports into the Hungary-Slovenia system from Austria and Slovakia fell to 1,955 MW, down 478 MW, while flows from Italy into the SEE region also declined. At the same time, the Hungary-Germany spread widened to 7.45 €/MWh, up 6 €/MWh, reinforcing the premium of the Hungarian hub relative to Western Europe.
This tightening of core inflows effectively isolated the Hungary-Serbia pricing zone, allowing local fundamentals to dominate.
In Serbia, the premium widened significantly against neighboring markets, with SEEPEX trading nearly 17 €/MWh above Romania and Bulgaria. That spread indicates localized balancing constraints and stronger evening peak exposure, rather than system-wide tightness. With wind generation slightly lower and solar dominating the intraday profile, the market structure likely produced deep midday price softness followed by sharp evening ramps, a pattern increasingly visible across the region.
Renewable output forecasts support this interpretation. Total RES generation stood at 10,179 MW, including 4,320 MW solar and 3,394 MW wind, with solar increasing day on day while wind eased. This combination typically amplifies intra-day volatility, especially in markets with limited storage or interconnection flexibility.
Forward markets, meanwhile, signaled a more cautious outlook. Hungarian baseload forwards edged higher, with Week 16 at 116.50 €/MWh, May-26 at 100.50 €/MWh, and Cal-26 at 115.50 €/MWh, supported by firmer gas and stable carbon pricing. CEGH gas rose to 53.88 €/MWh, while EUA held at 71.51 €/t.
Yet forward spreads to Germany softened slightly across the curve, suggesting that today’s prompt tightness is not fully expected to persist, particularly if renewable generation continues to improve and interconnection flows normalize.
Across the wider region, structural developments continue to reshape market behavior. Bulgaria’s partial return of the Chaira pumped-storage plant, Greece’s completion of 2.13 GW of solar capacity, and Hungary’s expansion of battery storage—now targeting 2.4–2.5 GW of capacity—all point toward a system increasingly driven by renewable intermittency and balancing flexibility.
In the near term, the trading focus remains on regional spreads rather than outright price direction. The Romania–Bulgaria–Greece corridor around 80 €/MWh is acting as a soft floor, while Hungary and Serbia continue to command a premium driven by localized constraints. Any easing in cross-border congestion or further gains in renewable output could compress these spreads quickly.
For now, however, the market remains structurally split, with Serbia emerging as the tightest node in the Balkan system, and Hungary maintaining its role as the core pricing pivot between Western and South-East Europe.