European gas prices remained range-bound during Week 24, with noticeable intraday volatility but no clear directional breakout. TTF futures averaged €49.00/MWh, marking a modest 0.9% weekly increase. Prices briefly climbed to a weekly peak of €49.99/MWh before dropping sharply toward €46.77/MWh by the end of the week.
The late-week decline was driven by easing concerns over potential disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as political signals surrounding Washington–Tehran discussions reduced immediate geopolitical risk premiums. Despite this correction, the weekly average remained slightly higher overall, supported by persistent worries over summer gas demand, ongoing storage refill obligations, and intensified global LNG competition.
On the forward curve, the one-month TTF contract was assessed at €41.180/MWh (equivalent to $13.99/MMBtu). In comparison, Henry Hub traded at $3.24/MMBtu or €9.54/MWh, while JKM futures stood significantly higher at $15.940/MMBtu as of June 16. This widening spread between US domestic gas and Asian LNG benchmarks continues to highlight Europe’s structural dependence on competitive LNG cargo allocation.
Physical flow data reflected a mixed regional LNG picture. Greece recorded a sharp decline in LNG inflows, falling 29.8% to 603.87 GWh, while Croatia remained largely stable at 640.83 GWh, down just 0.7%. In contrast, Italy saw a strong increase, with LNG inflows rising 34.11% to 3,803.52 GWh, indicating shifting regional import dynamics.
Overall, the European gas market remains stable on the surface but structurally tense underneath. While prices are not breaking higher, the LNG procurement environment is gradually tightening ahead of winter. Factors such as storage refill requirements, reduced Russian pipeline flexibility, and strong Asian demand competition will continue to keep pricing sensitive. The market is not short of gas today, but it is increasingly pricing in the value of security of supply for the upcoming heating season.