During the third week of March, electricity prices across most major European markets generally followed an upward trajectory; however, prices declined on March 19 and 20, as well as over the weekend. As a result, weekly average prices decreased in most markets. The Italian, German, and British markets were exceptions, recording increases of 1.0%, 7.1%, and 20%, respectively. In contrast, Portugal and Spain experienced the sharpest declines, with prices falling by 49% and 50%, respectively. In other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, price decreases ranged from 2.3% in the Dutch market to 42% in the French market.
During the week of March 16, weekly average prices exceeded €90/MWh in most European electricity markets. Exceptions included Portugal, Spain, France, and the Nordic region, where averages stood at €34.83/MWh, €35.32/MWh, €46.90/MWh, and €55.39/MWh, respectively. Italy recorded the highest weekly average at €149.04/MWh. In the remaining analyzed markets, prices ranged from €93.49/MWh in Belgium to €126.57/MWh in Great Britain.
Regarding daily price movements, Thursday, March 19, saw Spain and Portugal record the lowest averages among the analyzed markets, at €24.95/MWh. These two markets also posted daily prices below €30/MWh on March 18 and 22. France also fell below this threshold on March 18, while the Nordic market did so on Sunday, March 22.
Meanwhile, throughout the third week of March, Italian market prices consistently remained above €135/MWh. The German, Belgian, British, and Dutch markets also experienced prices exceeding €100/MWh during certain sessions. On Sunday, March 22, Italy recorded the highest daily average among the analyzed markets at €161.89/MWh. Additionally, on Friday, March 20, the British market reached its highest price since February 3, 2025, at €157.88/MWh.
In the week of March 16, rising gas prices contributed to upward pressure on European electricity prices. However, this was partially offset by lower CO₂ emission allowance prices, reduced electricity demand, and increased solar generation across most markets, all of which supported price declines in many regions. Higher wind generation in the Iberian Peninsula also helped push prices lower in Spain and Portugal.
Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts suggest that during the fourth week of March, prices may increase across most major European electricity markets, driven by elevated gas prices and rising demand. Lower solar generation in Germany and reduced wind output in France could further support price increases in those markets. Conversely, higher wind generation in the Iberian Peninsula and increased solar production in Spain are expected to exert downward pressure on prices in Spain and Portugal, AleaSoft reports.