During the third week of March, Brent crude oil futures front-month settlement prices on the ICE market exceeded $100/bbl. On Monday, March 16, prices recorded their weekly low at $100.21/bbl, before entering an upward trajectory. By Friday, March 20, prices reached a weekly high of $112.19/bbl, marking an increase of 8.8% compared to the previous Friday and the highest level since July 5, 2022, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data.
Throughout the week, oil prices continued to rise despite attempts to limit the increase. An agreement by Iraq to export oil via the Turkish port of Ceyhan exerted downward pressure midweek. However, ongoing supply disruptions linked to the conflict between the United States and Iran, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remained key drivers pushing Brent futures higher.
In parallel, TTF natural gas futures for the front-month contract on the ICE market increased during the first four trading sessions of the week. On Monday, March 16, prices reached their weekly minimum at €50.89/MWh, followed by sustained gains that culminated in a weekly peak of €61.85/MWh on Thursday, March 19. This represented the highest level since January 24, 2023. On Friday, March 20, prices declined by 4.2% to €59.26/MWh, though they still remained 18% higher than the previous Friday.
The upward movement in gas prices was primarily driven by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting supply, as well as persistently low European gas storage levels, which currently average below 30%, with some countries below 25%.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures for the December 2026 contract on the EEX market followed a downward trend for most of the week. On Monday, March 16, prices peaked at €69.02/t, before declining to a weekly low of €63.67/t on Thursday, March 19. This level marked the lowest since April 10, 2025. On Friday, March 20, prices rebounded by 6.3% to €67.68/t, although they still closed 2.2% lower than the previous Friday.
Overall, the week reflected a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and inventory levels, which collectively influenced the pricing dynamics across oil, gas, and carbon markets, AleaSoft reports.