During the fourth week of June, Brent oil futures on the ICE market showed a clear downward trend, despite starting the week with a temporary peak. The Front Month contract reached its weekly high settlement price of $77.90/bbl on Monday, June 22, although this level was already 3.3% lower than the previous Friday. Prices then declined almost continuously through the week, ultimately reaching a weekly low of $71.99/bbl on Friday, June 26, which represented an 11% drop week-on-week and the lowest level since February 27, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data.
The decline in oil prices was driven mainly by increased maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran aimed at easing geopolitical tensions. These developments reduced risk premiums in the crude oil market and contributed to sustained selling pressure throughout the week.
In the gas market, TTF natural gas futures (ICE Front Month) also showed moderate weakness. Prices peaked at €42.01/MWh on June 23, but remained below €41/MWh for most of the week. The weekly low was recorded on June 25 at €40.41/MWh, the lowest level since April 21. By June 26, prices slightly recovered to €40.78/MWh, still 3.1% lower than the previous week, reflecting continued softness despite underlying supply constraints.
Downward pressure on gas prices was similarly linked to higher shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, although relatively low storage levels and firm European demand prevented a deeper decline, keeping prices consistently above the €40/MWh threshold.
In contrast, CO₂ emission allowance futures (EEX, December 2026 contract) showed a more stable but slightly volatile pattern. Prices hit a weekly low of €76.17/t on June 23, before rebounding to a weekly high of €77.52/t on June 24. Toward the end of the week, prices eased slightly but remained above €77/t, closing at €77.17/t on June 26, which was 4.2% below the previous Friday’s level, indicating mild weekly weakness in the carbon market, AleaSoft reports.