Serbia’s preliminary net electricity imports of about 515 GWh from 1 to 22 October were estimated to cost €107.6 million, highlighting the financial exposure when domestic generation falls short during a regional price surge. The cost comes as the country faces a need for more flexible supply during periods of scarcity.
SEEPEX market data showed October day-ahead baseload averaged €234.31/MWh, up 56.2% from September. Day-ahead traded volume reached 579,308 MWh, a 13.2% increase year on year. By early November, Serbia was repeatedly clearing close to €300/MWh, with evening scarcity hours above €400/MWh.
The challenge is not simply a lack of renewable capacity. Serbia needs more dispatchable and flexible energy when coal availability, hydro production or wind output disappoint. New wind capacity such as Pupin can reduce annual import requirements, but does not eliminate the need for balancing, reserve capacity and long-duration flexibility.
Serbia and JICA are accelerating preparatory work on the Bistrica pumped-storage project. Its environmental and social assessment is due to be submitted as part of the financing process. Pumped storage can move large quantities of energy across several hours, support reserves and arbitrage the growing difference between renewable-rich periods and evening scarcity. Those functions cannot be fully replaced by short-duration batteries.
SEEPEX intraday trading volume remains small compared with its day-ahead market. The wider ADEX framework and deeper regional integration are expected to improve short-term optimisation. More liquid intraday trading would allow wind, solar, batteries and suppliers to correct forecast errors closer to delivery, rather than carrying greater imbalance exposure.
Serbia’s winter electricity balance will depend on thermal plant reliability, hydro inflows and the availability of regional imports. Better conditions could lower procurement costs, while further outages or dry weather could renew pressure during expensive evening hours.