Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices remained near €300/MWh on November 4, while widening differences between markets pointed to greater regional fragmentation. Imports increased as Serbian prices moved lower. The regional day-ahead power market continued to show sharply different price levels across neighbouring countries.
Prices diverge across Southeast Europe
Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria formed the closest price group, with HUPX settling at €302.31/MWh, Romania at €300.84/MWh and Bulgaria at €301.69/MWh. All three rose from the previous session. Montenegro and North Macedonia remained nearby, at €299.13/MWh and €299.90/MWh respectively.
At the region’s price extremes, SEEPEX in Serbia fell by €12.7/MWh to €292.45/MWh, while Albania rose by €19.4/MWh to a regional high of €333.03/MWh. Greece gained €12.4/MWh but remained among the least expensive SEE markets at €279.70/MWh. Germany traded at €248.99/MWh, putting Hungary at a €53.33/MWh premium to the German market, while Italy was also cheaper at €282.19/MWh.
Regional physical balances continued to support prices despite lower demand. Forecast consumption decreased by 712 MW to 34,910 MW, while net imports rose by 483 MW to 4,244 MW. Imports from the Austria-Slovakia direction reached 3,142 MW, and flows from Italy into the region increased to 1,104 MW, raising SEE’s reliance on external supply despite the demand decline.
Generation and Serbian price movements
Regional generation fell from 31,861 MW on November 3 to around 30,665 MW on November 4. The renewable balance also shifted: solar production was forecast to increase by 1,304 MW, while wind generation was expected to decline by 1,464 MW. The fall in wind output more than offset the anticipated solar gain.
Serbia provided one of the clearest signs of regional decoupling. SEEPEX base power declined to €292.45/MWh, almost €10/MWh below Hungary. The adjustment was concentrated in peak hours: Serbian peak prices fell to €316.5/MWh from €341.4/MWh, while off-peak prices were nearly unchanged at €268.4/MWh.
This price pattern indicates that Serbia’s decline was driven mainly by easing tightness during peak periods, rather than by a broad reduction across the daily curve. Albania moved sharply in the opposite direction, with ALPEX rising to €333.03/MWh, more than €40/MWh above Serbia. Its maximum hourly price reached €600/MWh at H21.
The widening Serbia-Albania price gap shows how transmission constraints and local generation conditions can produce large differences within the SEE market despite the countries’ geographical proximity. The Serbian and Albanian moves therefore stood apart from the tighter price grouping in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.
Forward prices and market drivers
Forward markets were softer than the spot market signal. Hungarian Week 46 power edged up to €314/MWh, while Week 47 fell to €294/MWh and December declined to €262/MWh. The HU-DE Week 47 spread narrowed by €18.5/MWh to €71/MWh.
Gas, carbon and coal benchmarks also moved lower, providing less evidence that the latest spot-market strength was driven by a fresh fuel-cost shock. The trading signal increasingly centred on regional price dispersion rather than the headline SEE price. Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria remained closely grouped around €301-302/MWh, while Serbia moved into a lower-priced Central Balkan pocket.
Greece and Italy remained cheaper, while Albania became the region’s clearest scarcity market. SEE net imports stood above 4.2 GW, and Hungary continued to trade more than €50/MWh above Germany. Cross-border capacity, wind availability and national generation balances remained the main factors to watch in the next trading sessions.