For Oct. 8 delivery, Hungary’s day-ahead premium to Germany widened to almost €75/MWh as wind and solar output recovered across Southeast Europe. German day-ahead electricity fell by €52.68/MWh to €139.35/MWh, while Hungary’s HUPX benchmark rose by €3.47/MWh to €214.28/MWh. Austria also traded below Hungary at €188.88/MWh, and scheduled imports into the monitored Hungary-SEE region from Austria and Slovakia fell by around 542 MW to 1.53 GW.
The resulting €74.93/MWh spread reflected short-term SEE pricing shaped by regional transmission capacity rather than aggregate European generation. Scheduled cross-border flows into the monitored area declined, while prices across Southeast Europe moved in different directions.
Southeast Europe day-ahead prices mixed across benchmarks
Serbia’s SEEPEX benchmark decreased by €18.58/MWh to €179.39/MWh, widening its discount to Hungary to €34.89/MWh. Serbia’s scheduled net imports increased to around 988 MW. Montenegro rose by €11.39/MWh to €208.80/MWh, Bulgaria gained €9.80/MWh to €208.40/MWh, and Albania climbed €9.40/MWh to €221.53/MWh, the highest monitored SEE daily average.
Romania was little changed at €209.38/MWh, while Croatia fell to €200.81/MWh and Slovenia dropped to €197.10/MWh. Greece remained cheaper at €165.25/MWh, and North Macedonia averaged €167.78/MWh. No monitored SEE market recorded a negative day-ahead price.
Renewables recovered as demand rose modestly and imports shifted
Regional demand increased only modestly, by around 284 MW, reaching 29.94 GW. Forecast wind generation rose by around 959 MW to 2.32 GW, while solar gained 470 MW to 6.12 GW. Total scheduled generation increased to approximately 27.94 GW, cutting regional net imports by about 466 MW to 2.00 GW.
The largest improvement came from Romania, where its scheduled import requirement fell from roughly 1.44 GW to 314 MW. This followed forecast generation increasing by more than 1 GW, reaching 5.21 GW. The improvement remained vulnerable because Romanian nuclear output is still absent, leaving the system dependent on weather-sensitive generation and cross-border support.
Southeast Europe also saw major scheduled flow shifts within the region’s balancing patterns. Slovenia moved from a roughly 251 MW-import position to about 469 MW of scheduled exports. Hungary moved in the opposite direction, with scheduled imports rising to around 1.70 GW, while domestic generation fell to roughly 3.06 GW.
Kozloduy output cuts and low Danube water levels affect Bulgarian supply risk
Bulgaria remained a major regional exporter, but its scheduled surplus fell sharply to about 826 MW, down from about 1.50 GW
Bulgaria faced an additional nuclear constraint as demand increased while forecast generation declined. Output from both Kozloduy units 5 and 6 was reduced by around 90 MW each because of critically low Danube water levels.
Kozloduy had already been managing unit 5 under a low-water operating regime, and extending restrictions to both operating reactors increased Bulgaria’s regional significance as one of Romania’s most important marginal sources of imported electricity. The situation added hydrological risk in a market already dealing with weak Romanian nuclear availability.
Bosnia and Herzegovina remained an important exporter with scheduled net exports of roughly 386 MW, supplying Serbia and Montenegro. Croatia continued to import around 703 MW, Albania 148 MW and Montenegro about 30 MW, while Greece stayed a net exporter with its scheduled surplus narrowing to around 240 MW.
Softer intraday volatility alongside continued flexibility value signals
Hourly volatility moderated compared with earlier sessions, with Serbia trading between about €110.60 and €250.10/MWh versus the previous day’s €45.90-295.10 range. Hungary ranged from roughly €139.80 to €266.50/MWh, while Greece moved between zero and around €256.60/MWh.
No monitored SEE market recorded a negative day-ahead price during the session window, while Albania produced the highest regional hourly maximum at about €300/MWh and Montenegro reached roughly €273/MWh.
The narrower hourly ranges reduced immediate arbitrage margins from extreme levels seen earlier in October but did not weaken the broader investment case for flexibility described through repeated daily swings of more than €100/MWh supporting batteries, pumped hydro and active load management.
TURKEY’S LOW PRICES AND LIMITED EXPORT FLOWS INTO BULGARIA
TURKEY remained dramatically cheaper than the rest of the region, with a provisional day-ahead average around TRY3,006/MWh, equivalent to approximately €55/MWh. That left Turkish electricity more than €150/MWh cheaper than Bulgaria, while scheduled exports into Bulgaria remained around only 100 MW.
The price difference indicated the economic value of additional cross-border capacity because cheap generation exists close to the SEE market but network constraints limited how much electricity could be moved into the region’s tightest pricing areas.
Northern forward curve holds scarcity premium despite German spot decline
The Hungarian forward market strengthened even as German spot power collapsed for the same period, with Week 42 rising to around €216/MWh, November climbing to approximately €219.50/MWh and Calendar 2027 reaching about €157.50/MWh.
The forward curve reflected higher gas and carbon prices, with CEGH gas around €78.93/MWh and EU allowances near €85.25/tonne.
The forward curve suggested traders did not expect Germany’s sharp spot decline to translate automatically into sustained relief for Southeast Europe given Hungary’s import dependence, Romania’s lack of nuclear generation and Bulgarian export capability being constrained by low Danube levels.
The Oct. 8 market showed that renewable output can improve daily physical balances quickly while commercial value remains linked to where electricity is produced, when it is available and whether grid constraints allow it to reach demand centres across borders.
The nearly €75/MWh Hungary-Germany spread indicated that transmission scarcity can overwhelm even a major fall in neighbouring wholesale prices within Southeast Europe.