Electricity prices in Southeast Europe rose for 9 October delivery, with Hungary reaching €269.43/MWh and Serbia posting the largest daily increase among the markets covered. Lower wind output and nuclear outages tightened regional supply, increasing reliance on imports and widening price differences versus Central European markets. Hungary’s day-ahead premium over Germany expanded to €190.86/MWh, compared with approximately €74.9/MWh a day earlier.
Day-ahead price moves across regional markets
While German electricity prices declined, most Southeast European markets recorded significant increases. Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead average climbed by €60.6/MWh to €239.96/MWh, an increase of approximately 34%. Hungary recorded a €55.2/MWh rise, or nearly 26%, while Romania increased by €45.8/MWh to €255.20/MWh. Bulgaria’s average rose by €33.1/MWh to €241.49/MWh.
The price increases extended beyond the largest movers. Montenegro’s BELEN average rose by €14.6/MWh to €223.39/MWh, while Croatia increased by €22.1/MWh to €222.92/MWh. Slovenia advanced by €14.6/MWh to €211.73/MWh. Greece’s day-ahead average climbed by €42.7/MWh to €207.93/MWh, and North Macedonia recorded a €42.4/MWh increase to €210.14/MWh.
Albania moved in the opposite direction, with prices falling by €111/MWh to €110.53/MWh, about half the previous day’s level. The resulting discount to Hungary widened to nearly €159/MWh. Such divergence can support cross-border trading, depending on transmission capacity, delivery costs and market conditions.
Nuclear outages, wind decline and import reliance
The rally was linked to tightening generation availability rather than a large increase in demand. Forecast electricity consumption across the markets covered rose by just 118 MW to 30,187 MW, while expected wind generation fell by 1,354 MW to 1,376 MW, almost halving versus the previous day. Solar generation was forecast to increase by 319 MW to 5,339 MW, offsetting less than a quarter of the wind decline.
Taken together, combined wind and solar generation fell by approximately 1,035 MW, increasing the need for alternative supply sources. Regional net imports rose by 1,523 MW to 4,247 MW, representing about 14% of forecast consumption compared with 9% a day earlier. Imports through monitored Austria–Slovakia routes into Hungary and Slovenia increased by 1,307 MW to 3,555 MW.
The additional imported electricity did not prevent further widening in Hungary’s premium over Germany. Daily averages alone do not indicate whether transmission constraints were responsible for the price gap between the two regions.
Nuclear availability in Romania and Bulgaria
Nuclear outages contributed to pressure on the regional supply balance. Romania’s Cernavoda plant was reported to have both reactors unavailable, with the outage expected to continue until at least 15 October and any restart dependent on conditions on the Danube.
Bulgaria’s Kozloduy nuclear power plant saw unit 6 enter annual maintenance scheduled through the end of November. The remaining reactor, unit 5, was operating at approximately 917 MW gross, with available output also affected by low river levels. Across the regional generation markets covered, nuclear production had already declined by 645 MW to 3,216 MW on 8 October.
Forward prices and fuel-carbon support
Forward electricity prices strengthened in Hungary alongside the day-ahead moves. Week-42 contracts increased by €19/MWh to €235/MWh, while week-43 prices rose by €14/MWh to €223/MWh. November contracts gained €7.5/MWh to €227/MWh.
The November Hungary–Germany spread widened to €45.50/MWh. Fuel and carbon prices also supported wholesale electricity costs, with Austrian CEGH gas rising to €80.78/MWh and EU carbon allowances increasing to €86.88 per tonne.
The combination of lower wind output and reduced nuclear availability increased exposure of market participants relying on replacement supply to wholesale volatility driven by price differences across hours and borders.
The key development for 9 October was a sharp rise in imported electricity requirements despite relatively stable demand levels across the covered markets.